Markets move together.
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Explore the connections between policy, currencies, commodities and everyday business—with clear views, supporting evidence and the risks that matter.
Market observations retain their individual dates and statuses. This is dated research, not a live price feed.
Oil’s recovery has a delivery problem
Production recovery is not the same as replenished inventories. The new IEA report makes a simple crude-normalization short less convincing. A preliminary Escondida agreement reduces copper strike risk, while ASML challenges the Nasdaq demand-break short. Retain one March SOFR; reassess stronger alternatives at current prices.
Read the full dated reviewViews with conditions attached.
March SOFR: fewer hikes than priced
Hold the existing limited-tightening position. Inflation pass-through from energy remains a counterweight; CPI is still ahead.
Long one CME March 2027 three-month SOFR future (SR3H27)Read the thesis March micro soybean oil / meal relative-value starter
Avoid re-entry: a better current spread still has negative modeled net economics.
Long soybean-oil demand versus short soybean-meal byproduct supplyRead the thesis Gold: April horizon expression
Gold is the strongest feasible marginal challenger, but energy-led inflation can raise real yields and the existing SOFR position already expresses a less-hawkish path.
One April 2027 micro gold MGCJ27 studied; eight 1 OZJ 27 alternativeRead the thesis Follow the research.
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