Finite estimated Saudi export buffers and a fresh Hormuz vessel strike raise monitoring urgency, not trading urgency.
All seven accepted theses were reviewed. Hold yen research only; every conditional setup remains blocked and the paper portfolio stays in cash.
ATG global futures thesis monitor — September 13, 2026 morning
Cutoff: 09:15 EDT, Toronto. Data status: partial. Futures markets were closed. Every contract value below is a carried September 11 exact-contract observation with its original status and timestamp; there is no Sunday futures price, assumed zero move, synchronized quote or executable spread. The four-month research horizon remains September 6, 2026 through January 6, 2027.
Bottom line
No action; keep the simulated portfolio entirely in cash. This seven-thesis delta review is not a fresh universe scan. The physical-energy regime alert strengthened because Saudi export buyers and traders reportedly estimate only five–seven days of Yanbu stock cover while pipeline repair timing is uncertain, and a fresh Hormuz vessel strike caused a fire and crew evacuation. Neither report establishes a current net export loss, and closed futures provide no evidence of how much is priced. Monitoring urgency is high; trading urgency is zero.
Hold the yen research thesis without adding. Wait on sugar, wheat/soy, gas and VIX; keep SOFR suspended and OAT/Bund unrated. No superior new futures opportunity is established.
The paper portfolio remains $1,000,000 cash and $1,000,000 NAV. Net return, realized/open P&L, modeled costs, margin and planned risk are zero; there are no positions, orders or fills.
Material changes since September 12, 20:45 Toronto
• Reuters published at 12:04 UTC / 08:04 EDT on September 13 that industry estimates put Yanbu export-stock coverage at five–seven days. Repair estimates conflict: one source suggested five–six weeks and another earlier or partial pumping. Saudi authorities supplied no confirmed repair timetable. Reported rerouted throughput near 4 million b/d is not an observed incremental export loss. Reuters
• Reuters published at 02:22 UTC on September 13 / 22:22 EDT on September 12 that a projectile struck a vessel transiting Hormuz, causing a fire and crew evacuation. This is new shipping-security evidence, not a measured reduction in aggregate transits or barrels. Reuters
• Reuters published at 03:07 UTC on September 13 / 23:07 EDT on September 12 that yen non-commercial futures positioning turned net long. The official September 8 CFTC vintage confirms 178,791 long minus 167,995 short = +10,796, versus −92,227 previously, a +103,023-contract swing. That validates prior momentum but consumes short-covering fuel; it is not Sunday or 6JZ26-specific positioning. Reuters, CFTC
• India's IMD bulletin issued 16:30 IST / 07:00 EDT forecasts isolated extremely heavy rain in Gujarat, Konkan/Goa and Madhya Maharashtra. It recorded Ukai 30 cm and Umerpada 23 cm over the 24 hours ending 08:30 IST and advised drainage/lodging precautions for sugarcane and soybean areas. This increases weather tail risk for the sugar short; it is not confirmed crop loss or export impairment. IMD
• NHC's 08:00 EDT bulletin identified a central subtropical Atlantic disturbance with near-zero formation probability over 48 hours and 20% over seven days. No cyclone or Gulf/LNG exposure is established. NHC government mirror
No new exact-contract futures price, curve settlement, positioning vintage, UNICA supply update, post-WASDE export cycle, central-bank action, current margin or executable depth was verified.
Trade-by-trade dashboard
Qualitative expected-return changes are research judgments versus the September 12 evening monitor. They are not measured returns, new statistical forecasts or paper performance. Priced-in scores are analytical scores, not probabilities.
| Thesis | Exact carried contract observation and move | Thesis, mechanics and four-month ER | Priced-in | Decision / risk state |
| Long yen | 6JZ26 0.006559 USD per JPY, CME at-least-ten-minute-delayed last Sep 11 17:39:08.506 EDT; session volume 222,233. Current move unavailable: market closed. | BOJ normalization survives, but imported-energy risk and dollar-haven/rates channels oppose the yen's risk-off channel. September 8 aggregate positioning confirms adoption and less remaining squeeze fuel. No new price trend, carry, basis, depth or measured correlation. ER: mixed/unchanged to slightly weaker. | 4.5/5 | Hold thesis; no add. Friday last was above .00635–.00639. Inactive stop .00618; inactive targets .00670–.00680. |
| Short sugar | SBH27 19.13¢/lb, Sep 11 vendor settlement, date-only and not ICE-confirmed; separate delayed last 19.15 at 12:59 EDT. Current move unavailable. | No fresh UNICA/exportable-supply confirmation or observed liquidation. Managed-money net length was 238,684, up 4,913 w/w, not liquidation and not March-specific. India rain adds adverse crop-supply tail risk. No new trend, basis, depth or measured correlation. ER confidence: marginally deteriorated. | 2.5/5 | Wait. Require a future ordered failed retest of 19.20–19.40 plus improving supply and liquidation evidence. Inactive stop 20.15; inactive targets 18.00/17.50. |
| Long wheat / short soy | ZWH27 741.25¢/bu; ZSH27 1318.75¢/bu, Sep 11 official settlements; monitoring ratio 2×W/S = 1.124171. Current move unavailable. | Ratio is in-band, but zero of two qualifying post-WASDE export cycles and no stronger delivered basis exist. WASDE and unchanged basis remain adverse; Indian soybean waterlogging is only a tail risk. The 2:1 package is not dollar- or risk-neutral. ER: essentially unchanged/mixed; thesis remains weakened. | 3/5 | Wait; retain demotion. Price band 1.115–1.135 is insufficient. Inactive stop 1.08; inactive targets 1.18–1.20. |
| SOFR flattener | SR3H27 95.540 / SR3Z26 95.770, CME delayed lasts Sep 11 17:38:58.197 EDT; implied-rate slope +23.0 bp. Current move unavailable. | The old structure remains cancelled/incomplete. Persistent energy inflation complicates the policy narrative. No new curve move, fixing basis, carry/rolldown, native depth, current margin or measured correlation. ER: unestimable/unchanged. | 2/5 | Wait / suspended. No approved entry, target, stop or adverse loss model; rebuild after FOMC. |
| Short Jan / long Mar gas | NGF27 3.882 / NGH27 2.887, CME delayed lasts at Sep 11 17:39:09.582 / 17:38:10.961 EDT; legs are 58.621 seconds apart. Arithmetic Jan–Mar +$0.995/MMBtu is indicative, not actionable. | Below the $1.10 gate. Stronger global energy risk is not direct U.S. Jan/Mar evidence. No synchronized package, regional basis, feedgas, winter-convexity clearance, depth, current margin or measured correlation. ER: unchanged/incompletely estimable. | 3.5/5 | Wait. Entry ≥1.10 only with synchronized executable legs and every physical/risk gate. Inactive target .60 and stop 1.35. |
| Long Oct / short Dec VIX | VXV26 18.3595 / VXZ26 19.2846, Sep 11 official settlements; Oct–Dec −0.9251. Current move unavailable. | Near-term tail catalyst strengthened, but persistent stress can support December too. Friday's spread missed −1.20 to −1.05 entry. No new spot basis, roll-down, native depth, margin, crowding or measured correlation. ER: mixed/unpriced; no calendar-specific improvement established. | 3.5/5 | Wait. Inactive stop −2.00; no approved target or replacement. |
| OAT/Bund context | FOATZ26 112.30 / FGBLZ26 120.48, Sep 11 official settlements, publication clocks unavailable. Current move unavailable. | ECB energy-inflation context does not supply CTD, conversion-factor, cash-bond, repo, futures-DV01 or integer-hedge inputs. Raw price subtraction is invalid. ER: unestimable. | Unrated | No action. Direction, entry, target and stop remain undefined. |
No stop, target, fundamental invalidation, catalyst failure, first notice, expiry or roll trigger was newly reached. All trading stops are inactive because the paper portfolio has no positions. The new evidence changes physical-risk scenarios, not observable trend, curve, carry, basis, liquidity or correlation.
Stops, invalidations, lifecycle and liquidity alerts
• Reopening gap risk: Friday marks cannot serve as Sunday fills. Obtain synchronized bid/ask, native spread depth, current margins and physical status before accepting new paper risk.
• Unresolved gas and VIX evidence: Gas trade terms remain incomplete following the September 10 storage release, and VIX terms remain incomplete following September 11 CPI. Their demotion/retirement conditions remain relevant; this edition retains the research decisions shown above.
• 6JZ26: review/roll December 7–11 before December 14 last trade and December 16 delivery. BOJ premise failure, not a weekend headline, is the fundamental invalidation.
• VXV26/VXZ26: October 21 and December 16 expiries precede January 6. No approved successor package exists.
• NGF27/NGH27: January last trade December 29 and first notice December 30; March dates February 24/25, 2027. Review/restructure in mid-December.
• FOATZ26/FGBLZ26: December 8 last trade and December 10 delivery precede the horizon. The package remains undefined.
• SBH27: February 26, 2027 last trade and March 1 first notice. ZWH27/ZSH27: February 26 first notice and March 12 last trade. All are after the research horizon.
• SOFR: retained SR3Z26 last-trade date is March 16, 2027. Implementation, not delivery, is the blocker.
Regime and superior-opportunity check
The energy alert is now stronger but still provisional. Five–seven days of estimated Yanbu stock cover and another Hormuz incident increase the consequences of a prolonged pipeline outage. Missing are operator-confirmed repair/restart timing, actual Yanbu loadings, inventory trajectory, verified net Saudi export loss and a current comparable shipping-flow series.
No superior new futures trade was established in this review. Retired crude-normalization and product-spread theses remain retired. Dow/Nasdaq rotation, cocoa, CAD/EUR and platinum/gold also remain retired; no fresh price review or reinstatement is implied. Evidence against normalization is not an automatic reverse signal, especially with futures closed and no new risk framework.
Catalysts over the next 72 hours
The catalyst window ends Wednesday September 16 at 09:15 EDT.
| Toronto timing | Catalyst | Decision relevance |
| Sunday evening, venue-specific | Futures reopen | Verify exact-contract bid/ask, native spread depth, margins, pipeline/export status and reopening gaps. |
| Sun 21:00 / Mon 10:00 JST; holdings around Mon 04:00 / 17:00 JST | BOJ Accounts and holdings | Yen context, not the policy decision. BOJ |
| Mon Sep 14, time/attendance unverified | Reported Oman talks | Verify occurrence and distinguish communiqués from pipeline/shipping normalization. |
| Mon Sep 14, source-displayed times | ECB speakers | Rates and energy-inflation interpretation; preserve the source clock without silent CET/CEST conversion. ECB |
| Mon Sep 14, expected 11:00 EDT | USDA export inspections | Check the covered period. A pre-WASDE activity week is not a full post-WASDE cycle. |
| Mon Sep 14, 16:00 EDT | USDA Crop Progress | Observed crop evidence can confirm or contradict weather forecasts. USDA NASS |
| Tue Sep 15, 08:30 EDT | Empire State Manufacturing Survey | Rates, FX and growth/inflation context. NY Fed |
| Tue Sep 15 | FOMC meeting begins | SOFR, yen and VIX event risk; no decision Tuesday. Federal Reserve |
| Wed Sep 16, 04:00 EDT | BOJ sector current-account balances | Yen context before the BOJ policy meeting. |
| Wed Sep 16, source displays 10:00 | ECB wage tracker | Rates context; source-clock convention remains ambiguous. |
| Wed Sep 16, 08:30 EDT | U.S. retail sales, import/export prices and NY Fed Business Leaders Survey | Newly inside 72 hours; growth/inflation inputs before the FOMC decision. Census competing schedule, BLS |
Immediately outside: September 16 FOMC decision/projections at 14:00 EDT and press conference at 14:30. Federal Reserve
Actions ranked by urgency
1. Keep the paper portfolio in cash. Do not create an order or intention from closed-market headlines.
2. Verify the reopening. Check operator/port evidence, actual Saudi export losses and synchronized VIX, yen and gas markets first.
3. Hold 6JZ26 thesis without adding. Imported-energy risk and consumed short-covering fuel offset the haven channel above the entry band.
4. Wait on VIX, gas, sugar and wheat/soy. Every setup lacks at least one price, physical, catalyst, liquidity, margin, numerical-risk or lifecycle gate.
5. Keep SOFR suspended and OAT/Bund unrated. A macro story is not a complete package.
What could change decisions before the next monitor
• A confirmed pipeline restart, measured Yanbu loadings and restored shipping would reduce the regime alert; a prolonged outage plus verified net export loss would strengthen it.
• A synchronized VIX Oct–Dec spread in −1.20 to −1.05 with usable depth and a distinct October-relative catalyst could activate the watch; a gap above the band removes value.
• 6JZ26 back in .00635–.00639 with durable yen demand and complete execution/roll inputs could justify an add; .00618 remains the inactive price invalidation.
• Gas Jan–Mar ≥$1.10 still needs synchronized legs plus regional basis, feedgas, margin, depth and adverse-winter clearance.
• Wheat/soy needs two genuinely post-WASDE export cycles and delivered-basis confirmation. Sugar needs current exportable-supply/UNICA evidence, observed liquidation and a prospective failed retest.
• SOFR needs a complete post-FOMC thesis with carry, target, stop and loss model. OAT/Bund needs sourced CTD/repo/DV01 hedge mathematics.
Paper portfolio
Starting and ending NAV are $1,000,000; net return is 0.00%. Realized and open P&L, commissions, modeled slippage, margin reserve and planned risk are $0. There are no positions, contracts, fills or pending instructions. No simulated trade was backfilled from a research label.
This is futures research and simulation only. No real account was accessed and no real order was placed or modified.