Hold yen research without adding; wheat/soy weakens and every conditional trade remains blocked.

Fresh WASDE, positioning and settlement evidence changed watch quality but cleared no full entry gate. Seven theses, zero paper positions or instructions; NAV remains $1,000,000.

ATG global futures thesis monitor — September 11, 2026 evening

Cutoff: 20:06 EDT, Toronto. Status: partial. CME values are exact-contract, at least ten-minute-delayed session lasts; sugar is a date-only vendor settlement; grains, VIX and Eurex are dated official settlements. Gas legs are asynchronous and their spread is indicative. The four-month horizon remains September 6, 2026 through January 6, 2027.

Bottom line

No action. Priced-in scores and expected-return directions are qualitative analytical judgments, not newly measured return estimates or probabilities. Hold the Japanese-yen research thesis without adding. The wheat/soy thesis weakened materially after WASDE, sugar fell without its physical-supply gate, and all other conditional ideas remain blocked. The paper portfolio stays entirely in cash: no positions, fills, pending instructions, P&L, costs, margin or risk.

Material changes since the morning cutoff

• September WASDE raised 2026/27 world wheat production from 819.30 to 822.43 Mt and ending stocks from 273.25 to 276.29 Mt; U.S. soybean exports rose from 1.660 to 1.685 billion bushels while ending stocks fell from 320 to 310 million. With delivered-wheat basis unchanged, this weakens the long-wheat/short-soy physical case. USDA WASDE, USDA AMS

• September 8 CFTC positioning, published September 11, showed leveraged-fund yen net shorts cut by 53,090 contracts; managed-money wheat net length fell 10,031 while soybean net length rose 22,338. These are lagged product-wide positions, not current contract-specific crowding. CFTC financial futures, CFTC agriculture

• Preliminary September Michigan sentiment fell to 47.8 from 51.7 while one-year inflation expectations rose to 4.6% from 4.0%. This is a weaker-growth/higher-inflation mix, not a clean easing signal. University of Michigan

• A new Southern Natural Gas force-majeure notice reduced named segment capacities for the September 12 timely cycle. It raises regional deliverability risk but does not prove nationwide January scarcity. Operator notice

Trade-by-trade decision dashboard

Thesis	Current exact contract or legs; move	Validity, four-month return and mechanics	Priced-in judgment	Decision and gate state
Japanese yen	6JZ26 0.006559 USD/JPY, CME delayed last at 17:39:08.506 EDT, volume 222,233; -0.000004 / -0.061% from morning.	Thesis valid, but expected return is less compelling because substantial short covering consumed squeeze fuel and the September BOJ move is reportedly priced. Negative carry remains; March roll quote is too thin/asynchronous.	4.5/5	Hold thesis; no add. Above .00635-.00639 band. .00618 invalidation and .00670-.00680 objectives untouched.
Sugar short	SBH27 19.13¢/lb, September 11 vendor settlement; -0.62¢ / -3.14% from carried September 10.	Expected return deteriorated mechanically as price moved toward unchanged targets. Gross-long liquidation was small and net length increased because shorts covered; exportable-supply evidence remains absent.	2.5/5	Wait. Do not backfill or chase. Require verified supply plus a prospective ordered failed retest; 20.15 stop and 18.00/17.50 targets inactive.
Wheat/soy	ZWH27 741.25¢, ZSH27 1318.75¢, official September 11 settlements; 2W/S 1.124171, +0.544%.	Thesis weakened materially. Expected return deteriorated: ratio rose while WASDE, unchanged basis and positioning opposed the physical case. The 2:1 package is not risk-neutral.	3/5	Wait. Ratio remains in-band, but zero required post-WASDE export cycles have been reviewed. 1.08 invalidation and 1.18-1.20 targets inactive.
SOFR flattener	SR3H27 95.540, SR3Z26 95.770, CME delayed at 17:38:58.197 EDT; 100×(Z-H) +23.0 bp, +1.5 bp.	Prior plan remains cancelled/incomplete. Expected return is unestablished/deteriorated after steepening and higher inflation expectations. Carry, target, stop, margin and adverse scenario are undefined.	2/5	Wait. No valid activation or active stop.
Natural-gas calendar	NGF27 3.882 at 17:39:09.582 and NGH27 2.887 at 17:38:10.961 EDT; indicative Jan-Mar +$0.995, +$0.009.	Expected return remains unestablished. More convergence distance is offset by regional, LNG and winter-tail risk; CFTC shows more outright net shorts, not calendar crowding.	3.5/5	Wait. $0.105 below $1.10 gate; old $.60 target/$1.35 stop inactive.
VIX calendar	VXV26 18.3595, VXZ26 19.2846, official September 11 settlements; Oct-Dec -0.9251, -0.4126.	Entry geometry improved, but no expected-return model, October-relative catalyst, target, depth, margin or horizon replacement plan exists.	3.5/5	Wait. Still outside -1.20 to -1.05 band; no active stop.
OAT/Bund context	FOATZ26 112.30, FGBLZ26 120.48, official September 11 settlements; no raw-price package return is calculated.	Deliverables and conversion factors are now verified, but current CTDs, repo, cash prices, futures-adjusted DV01, integer hedge, target/stop and margins remain missing.	Unrated	No action. Raw price subtraction is not a defensible sovereign-spread trade.

No setup clears all entry gates. The paper portfolio has no positions, fills or pending instructions; research stops and targets are not active orders.

Stops, lifecycle and liquidity alerts

• 6JZ26: the proposed review window is December 7-11, before the verified December 14 last trade. March volume was only 90 at the snapshot; no executable roll premium is established.

• VXV26/VXZ26: October 21 and December 16 expiries; the calendar cannot span January 6 unchanged.

• NGF27: December 29 last trade precedes horizon end. Its leg timestamps differed by 58.621 seconds, so +$0.995 is indicative only.

• FOATZ26/FGBLZ26: lifecycle safety clocks remain unverified and implementation is undefined.

• SBH27: ICE confirms February 26, 2027 last trade and March 1 first notice. March grains also span the horizon, but broker safety, current margins and package depth remain incomplete.

• Outstanding gates: wheat requires two post-WASDE export cycles; sugar requires current UNICA/exportable-supply evidence; SOFR, gas, VIX and OAT/Bund remain blocked by the execution and evidence gaps described above.

Regime and superior-opportunity check

Energy-led inflation and physical-supply disruption remain the principal cross-market warning. Reporting that full Gulf-flow recovery is delayed to 2027 and a regional gas constraint oppose simple disinflation trades, but shipping evidence remains mixed. Retired crude and products ideas remain retired. No superior new opportunity is established.

Catalysts over the next 72 hours

Date/time	Catalyst	Decision relevance
Weekend	Shipping, pipeline and weather updates	Energy, inflation, volatility and yen; unscheduled gap risk.
Sep 12, 12:15 CET (calendar label); Sep 14, times unspecified	ECB public appearances	SOFR and OAT/Bund context. ECB
Mon Sep 14, 10:00 JST / around 17:00 JST	BOJ accounts and holdings	Yen context, not the policy decision. BOJ
Mon Sep 14, time unspecified	Iran-Gulf Hormuz discussions in Oman	Energy and inflation; talks are not physical normalization. CNA/AFP

The September 15-16 FOMC and September 17-18 BOJ decisions are outside the 72-hour catalyst calendar but remain major upcoming policy events.

Actions ranked by urgency

1. Keep the paper portfolio in cash. No setup clears all execution and evidence gates.

2. Hold yen research only; do not add above the band.

3. Wait on wheat/soy and lower confidence: WASDE and basis weakened the thesis; review actual subsequent export cycles.

4. Do not chase sugar: require exportable-supply evidence and a new prospective price sequence.

5. Wait on SOFR, gas and VIX; no action on OAT/Bund.

What could change decisions before the next monitor

• New weekend shipping, pipeline or weather evidence that materially changes energy-inflation risk.

• Verified 6JZ26 opportunity back in .00635-.00639 with durable yen demand, complete execution inputs and a lifecycle-safe roll; .00618 remains invalidation.

• For wheat/soy, genuinely post-WASDE export cycles and stronger delivered-wheat demand/basis. Band membership alone is insufficient.

• For sugar, current exportable-supply/UNICA evidence and an observed prospective failed retest; Friday OHLC cannot reconstruct the sequence.

• NGF27-NGH27 at or above $1.10 on synchronized quotes plus regional basis, feedgas, depth, margin and adverse-winter checks.

• VIX Oct-Dec at -1.20 to -1.05 with a distinct October-relative catalyst, target and replacement plan.

• A complete post-FOMC SOFR plan or a CTD/repo/DV01-complete OAT/Bund package.

Paper portfolio

Starting and ending NAV are $1,000,000; net return 0.00%. Realized P&L, open P&L, commissions, modeled slippage, margin reserve and planned risk are $0. There are no positions, contracts, fills or pending instructions. No simulated trade is backfilled from a research label.

This is futures research and simulation only. No real account was accessed and no real order was placed or modified.