Hold yen research only; every conditional trade remains blocked and the paper book stays in cash.

Hot PPI, an ECB hike and renewed oil disruption steepened the inflation regime. The yen thesis survives with weaker asymmetry; sugar and wheat/soy lost fundamental quality; SOFR, gas, VIX and bonds remain incomplete. Seven research theses, zero paper positions and no intentions.

ATG global futures thesis monitor — September 10, 2026

Cutoff: 20:08:55 EDT, Toronto. Status: partial. CME quotes are at least ten minutes delayed; CFE and Eurex values are official September 10 settlements; agriculture uses September 10 vendor settlements. Asynchronous packages are indicative and cannot support simulated execution. The four-month horizon remains September 6, 2026 through January 6, 2027.

Bottom line

No action. Hold the Japanese-yen research thesis without adding; wait on sugar, wheat/soy, SOFR, gas and VIX; take no action on the undefined OAT/Bund package. No superior time-sensitive opportunity is established. The paper portfolio remains entirely in cash with no fills or pending instructions.

Material changes since the September 9 cutoff

• U.S. August producer prices rose 0.4% month over month and 5.4% year over year; the less-foods-energy-and-trade measure rose 0.3% and 4.7%. Energy goods rose 4.2% and diesel 24.1%. This strengthens energy-led inflation and tightening risk. BLS

• The ECB raised its deposit rate 25 basis points to 2.50%, effective September 16. The decision did not supply the CTD/DV01/repo inputs required for an OAT/Bund trade. ECB

• Japan's preliminary August CGPI was -0.2% month over month and +7.6% year over year. BOJ member Masu still supported further normalization, but softer monthly producer/import inflation tempers a simple yen conclusion. BOJ CGPI, Masu speech

• EIA reported 3,254 Bcf in working gas, a 40 Bcf injection and a 4.8% surplus to the five-year average; South Central and salt storage nevertheless declined. This is mixed for the January/March fade. EIA

• WTI settled at $102.48, up 6.69%, amid continuing Hormuz and Red Sea disruption. That is a regime alert against disinflation and normalization theses, not a new exact-contract trade. Reuters

• Latest CFTC positioning still covers September 1; no daily crowding change is inferred. The next official release is September 11 at 15:30 EDT. CFTC

Trade-by-trade dashboard

Thesis	Current exact contract or legs; move	Validity, four-month return and mechanics	Priced-in	Decision and risk state
Japanese yen	`6JZ26` 0.0065185 USD/JPY, CME ≥10-minute-delayed last at 19:53:50.413 EDT; -0.0000380 / -0.580% from the prior 0.0065565.	Conditional thesis survives. BOJ normalization helps, while softer CGPI/import prices, hot U.S. PPI and the energy shock qualify it. Cheaper price improves fixed-target distance mechanically, but expected return is mixed, not freshly recalibrated. Dec-Sep premium is +0.0000465 with 42-second skew; positioning remains dated and short, not a measured new squeeze.	4/5 provisional	Hold thesis; no add. Entry/add .00635-.00639 not reached; .00618 invalidation and .00670-.00680 targets untouched. Roll/exit before Dec 14; no automatic March extension.
Sugar short	`SBH27` 19.75 cents/lb, September 10 vendor settlement; +0.36 / +1.857%.	Thesis weakened and expected return deteriorated. The 19.24 low followed by 19.75 settlement is not the required prospective failed retest; India import demand and high-oil ethanol optionality oppose the short. Old CFTC data show accumulation, not new liquidation.	2/5 provisional	Wait. Supply and liquidation gates missing. Targets 18.00/17.50 and 20.15 stop are conditional only; no position or active stop.
Wheat/soy	`ZWH27` 756.25 and `ZSH27` 1352.75 cents/bu, September 10 vendor settlements. `2W/S` = 1.118092774, -0.000538548 / -0.0481% from prior 1.118631322.	Thesis survives only conditionally; expected return deteriorated/grew less certain because reported Chinese soybean buying challenges the short leg. The ratio is a gate, not package-dollar return. Grains remain in contango; March wheat storage-charge mechanics and an unverified hedge correlation remain risks.	2.5/5 provisional	Wait. Band 1.115-1.135 is met, but actual WASDE and delivered-wheat basis/demand gates are not. Target 1.18-1.20 and 1.08 invalidation remain conditional.
SOFR flattener	`SR3H27` 95.595 at 19:53:37.074 and `SR3Z26` 95.815 at 19:53:02.346 EDT, CME delayed. `100×(Z-H)` = +22.0 bp, +7 bp steeper.	Prior setup stays cancelled. Expected return is unestablished until a complete new trade is defined. Hot PPI and curve steepening are adverse to long-H/short-Z if held. Carry, target, stop, margin and FOMC policy edge are incomplete.	2/5 provisional	Wait. CPI/FOMC unresolved; 35-second skew makes the package indicative. SR3 month names are reference-quarter starts, not expiry months.
Natural-gas calendar	`NGF27` 3.880 at 19:51:15.014 and `NGH27` 2.900 at 19:49:56.030 EDT, CME delayed. Jan-Mar = +$0.980/MMBtu, +$0.034 wider.	Aggregate storage surplus helps normalization, but salt/South-Central withdrawals preserve deliverability risk. Expected return is mixed/unestablished; widening is adverse to the proposed short-Jan/long-Mar direction if held. Outright managed-money shorts imply squeeze risk, not Jan-Mar crowding.	3.5/5 provisional	Wait. Below $1.10 gate; old $.60 target/$1.35 stop inactive. Storage was reviewed, but the trade terms remain incomplete. Exit/roll January before Dec 29 and before holiday liquidity deteriorates.
VIX calendar	Official September 10 settlements: `VXV26` 19.1305, `VXZ26` 19.6430; Oct-Dec -0.5125, +0.2965 from -0.8090.	The proposed package would have benefited if held, but none was. Entry attractiveness and prospective return deteriorated because convergence occurred before entry. General volatility demand does not prove an October-relative-to-December edge; target, margin and correlation edge remain missing.	3.5/5 provisional	Wait. Outside -1.20 to -1.05 band. October 21 and December 16 expiries require explicit exit/replacement; no four-month package exists.
OAT/Bund context	Official September 10 settlements: `FOATZ26` 112.62, `FGBLZ26` 120.57, changes -1.02/-0.77.	Both sold off after ECB/energy shock; raw subtraction is not a sovereign spread. Expected return remains unestablished and the idea is unrateable without CTD, conversion factors, futures DV01, repo/basis and integer hedge counts.	Unrated	No action. ECB decision reviewed; trade terms remain incomplete. December 8 last trade/December 10 delivery precede horizon; complete implementation is mandatory before reconsideration.

No active/watch price stop, target, first-notice date or expiry was reached. Several conditional reference levels moved, but no thesis passed all physical, catalyst, liquidity and implementation gates.

Stop, invalidation, roll, expiry and liquidity alerts

• 6JZ26: December 14 last trade and December 16 delivery; review/exit or validate a March roll during December 7-11.

• NGF27: rule-derived December 29 last trade; the January leg cannot span January 6 unchanged. Exact broker safety and margin clocks remain unverified.

• VXV26/VXZ26: expire October 21/December 16. The original calendar cannot cover the horizon.

• FOATZ26/FGBLZ26: December 8 last trade and December 10 delivery. Hedge construction remains absent.

• SBH27 covers the horizon, but exact broker safety/margins remain unverified. March grain exact notice/exit clocks and execution-grade spread depth are incomplete.

• Gas storage and the ECB decision have been reviewed, but the gas and bond trade terms remain incomplete. Their existing evidence-based demotion conditions remain relevant.

Regime and opportunity alert

Energy-led inflation risk intensified, with oil, duration and equities moving adversely together. This is a material regime warning for disinflation and normalization ideas, but it does not supply a superior futures trade with complete terms. Retired crude normalization remains invalidated; retired ULSD/RBOB remains overtaken and is not revived.

Catalysts over the next 72 hours

All times Toronto/EDT.

Time	Catalyst	Exposed theses
Fri Sep 11, 08:30	U.S. CPI and real earnings; USDA weekly export sales	Yen, SOFR, VIX, wheat/soy
Fri Sep 11, 10:00	Michigan preliminary sentiment/inflation expectations	SOFR, VIX
Fri Sep 11, 12:00	USDA WASDE	Wheat/soy
Fri Sep 11, 15:30	CFTC positioning update	All board ideas except unrated bond mechanics
Weekend	Unscheduled Hormuz/Red Sea shipping and weather updates	Gas, sugar and global inflation regime

CPI is approximately 12 hours 21 minutes after the cutoff.

Actions ranked by urgency

1. No paper risk; no new intention. No thesis clears every gate.

2. Keep gas and bonds inactive while their trade terms remain incomplete. The available evidence does not establish an actionable trade.

3. Review Friday's CPI, export sales, WASDE and CFTC in sequence. Do not infer an outcome from the scheduled time.

4. Hold yen research only; no add. Price remains above the band and macro divergence is less favorable.

5. Wait on every watch. A price band or hypothetical favorable move is not a paper fill or P&L.

What could change decisions before the next monitor

• Yen: CPI/BOJ evidence plus a verified executable 6JZ26 quote in .00635-.00639 with durable yen demand; .00618 remains invalidation.

• Sugar: a genuine prospective failed retest plus verified exportable supply and fresh long liquidation; adverse deficit/supply news cancels it.

• Wheat/soy: actual WASDE plus delivered-wheat demand/basis confirmation after the report; 1.08 invalidates the ratio thesis.

• SOFR: CPI/FOMC evidence and a fully specified new entry, target, stop, carry and lifecycle package.

• Gas: Jan-Mar at or above $1.10 with regional deliverability, LNG/weather, margin and executable-liquidity confirmation.

• VIX: a return to -1.20 to -1.05 plus a named October-relative catalyst and complete target/expiry plan.

• Bonds: sourced CTDs, conversion factors, repo/basis, futures DV01, integer hedge, margin, target and stop.

Paper portfolio

Starting and ending NAV are $1,000,000; net return 0.00%. Realized P&L, open P&L, commissions, modeled slippage, margin reserve and planned risk are all $0. There are no positions, contracts, fills or pending instructions. No simulated trade is backfilled from prior research labels. The cost policy remains $3.50 per contract per side plus one adverse tick when a future qualifying fill occurs.

This is futures research and simulation only. No real account was accessed and no real order was placed or modified.