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Rates / U.S. · Wait; the SOFR long is a cleaner policy-path expressionDecember Treasury short challenger
Do not reopen the closed Treasury short solely because the price is higher.
Research view only. Reassess policy/term-premium evidence after CPI at the new price; no active position.
EXACT EXPRESSIONNo Treasury position; prior short remains closed
DATED RESEARCH QUOTEBid 104.859375 / ask 104.875
Exact native October 14 last; study entry uses separately observed bid
Entry conditions
No order. Re-underwrite after CPI changes the policy/term-premium balance rather than demanding an arbitrary 2 R ratio.
Target framework
Study 103.875
Fundamental invalidation
Study 105.265625 or sustained shift away from additional tightening.
Stop and risk limitation
No active stop; study 105.265625
Strongest counterargument
A lower expected terminal policy rate can support Treasuries even with near-term inflation high.
Next catalyst
October 14 CPI and subsequent policy-path evidence; no mandatory price-rejection trigger.
Roll and delivery
November 20 exit/re-underwriting; no February holding period assumed.
Market evidence
One standard ZN fits; sizing is not the blocker.
Expected return: interpretation
No current ZN position or simulated new return.
Source references
- IBKR exact ZNZ26 snapshot
- Reuters dollar, oil and Treasury-yield update
- Reuters Asian market selloff
- CME ZN specifications
How the view evolved
- Wait; the SOFR long is a cleaner policy-path expression — Do not reopen the closed Treasury short solely because the price is higher.
- Wait; the SOFR long is a cleaner policy-path expression — The Treasury rebound and limited-hike remarks weaken the long-end short; its positive model EV is fragile.
- Wait; the SOFR long is a cleaner policy-path expression — The Treasury rebound and limited-hike remarks weaken the long-end short; its positive model EV is fragile.
- Wait; the failed 105 rally is not enough to short before CPI — The safest conclusion is no reversal: the bond rally has stalled, not broken, one day before CPI.
- Wait; do not reverse into either direction before confirmation — The safest conclusion is no reversal: the bond rally has stalled, not broken, one day before CPI.
- Exit the entire simulated short one ZNZ26 — The structural inflation thesis survives, but lower oil, lower yields and broad risk-off buying moved ZN above recent highs. Preserve the remaining stop budget and exit.
- Hold -1 ZNZ26; add zero — Hammack added a fresh hawkish inflation signal, while the exact note future reopened higher in thin trade. Hold the bounded short, but add zero before CPI.
- Hold one ZNZ26; add zero — Hold the bounded short but do not add. Mortgage hedging reinforces the selloff, yet it can reverse and CPI remains the decisive test.
- Hold one ZNZ26; add zero — Hold the bounded short but do not add. The overnight rally is adverse, not yet a stop or a thesis break, and CPI is the next decisive test.
- Hold one ZNZ26; add zero — Hold the bounded short but do not add. The overnight rally is adverse, not yet a stop or a thesis break, and CPI is the next decisive test.
- Hold one ZNZ26; add zero — Hold the one-contract note short: Michigan inflation expectations rose, but weak growth evidence and genuine duration demand block any addition. Keep the existing stop, target and November 20 exit.
- Hold -1 ZNZ26; add zero — Hold the one-contract note short: Michigan inflation expectations rose, but weak growth evidence and genuine duration demand block any addition. Keep the existing stop, target and November 20 exit.
- Hold -1 ZNZ26; add zero — Hold the one-contract note short: Michigan inflation expectations rose, but weak growth evidence and genuine duration demand block any addition. Keep the existing stop, target and November 20 exit.
- Hold -1 ZNZ26; add zero — Hold the one-contract note short: Michigan inflation expectations rose, but weak growth evidence and genuine duration demand block any addition. Keep the existing stop, target and November 20 exit.
- Hold -1 ZNZ26; add zero — Hold the one-contract note short: Michigan inflation expectations rose, but weak growth evidence and genuine duration demand block any addition. Keep the existing stop, target and November 20 exit.
- Hold -1 ZNZ26; add zero — Hold the one-contract note short: Michigan inflation expectations rose, but weak growth evidence and genuine duration demand block any addition. Keep the existing stop, target and November 20 exit.
- Hold -1 ZNZ26; add zero — Hold the one-contract note short: Michigan inflation expectations rose, but weak growth evidence and genuine duration demand block any addition. Keep the existing stop, target and November 20 exit.
- Hold -1 ZNZ26; add zero — Hold the one-contract note short: Michigan inflation expectations rose, but weak growth evidence and genuine duration demand block any addition. Keep the existing stop, target and November 20 exit.
- Hold -1 ZNZ26; add zero — Hold the one-contract note short: Michigan inflation expectations rose, but weak growth evidence and genuine duration demand block any addition. Keep the existing stop, target and November 20 exit.
- Hold -1 ZNZ26; add zero — Hold the one-contract note short: Michigan inflation expectations rose, but weak growth evidence and genuine duration demand block any addition. Keep the existing stop, target and November 20 exit.
- Hold -1 ZNZ26; add zero — Hold the one-contract note short: inflation and issuance still support the mechanism and the contract retraced part of the auction rally, but genuine duration demand blocks any addition before Michigan expectations.
- Hold -1 ZNZ26; add zero — Hold the one-contract note short: inflation and issuance still support the mechanism, but overnight auction follow-through blocks any addition before Michigan expectations.
- Hold -1 ZNZ26; add zero — Hold the one-contract note short: fresh short- and medium-term inflation expectations support the mechanism, but do not add before the auction and minutes.
- Hold -1 ZNZ26; add zero — Hold the one-contract note short: fresh short- and medium-term inflation expectations support the mechanism, but do not add before the auction and minutes.
- Hold -1 ZNZ26; add zero — Hold the one-contract note short: fresh short- and medium-term inflation expectations support the mechanism, but do not add before the auction and minutes.
- Hold -1 ZNZ26; add zero — Hold the one-contract note short: fresh short- and medium-term inflation expectations support the mechanism, but do not add before the auction and minutes.
- Hold -1 ZNZ26; add zero — Hold the one-contract note short: fresh short- and medium-term inflation expectations support the mechanism, but do not add before the auction and minutes.
- Hold -1 ZNZ26; add zero — Hold the one-contract note short: fresh short- and medium-term inflation expectations support the mechanism, but do not add before the auction and minutes.
- Enter starter: short 1 ZNZ26 — Enter one small December-note short: exact sizing fits, the current-price tree remains positive, and the former 104.50 choreography is no longer a permanent veto.
- Wait for a named ZN trigger — The three-year auction was adequate and ZN stabilized. Wait for a fresh rejection after the ten-year sale rather than forcing the short.
- Wait for a named ZN trigger — The three-year auction was adequate and ZN stabilized. Wait for a fresh rejection after the ten-year sale rather than forcing the short.
- Wait for a named ZN trigger — A dated retreat occurred, but later evidence points to another rebound. Wait for a fresh post-auction rejection rather than entering retroactively.
- Wait for a named ZN trigger — A dated retreat occurred, but later evidence points to another rebound. Wait for a fresh post-auction rejection rather than entering retroactively.
- Wait for a named ZN trigger — The required rebound zone traded, but rejection was not observed. Wait for a lower high or downside follow-through rather than pre-empt it.
- Wait for a named ZN trigger — Yields remain high, but the required failed 104.50 rebound was not observed. Wait rather than chase the lower price.
- Wait for a named ZN trigger — Rates remained high, but the required failed 104.50 rebound was not observed. Wait rather than convert a maintenance-break vendor display into a paper fill.
- Wait for failed ZN rebound; do not chase — The named trigger never occurred. Keep only a finite conditional watch; do not create a standing order.
- Wait; no duration long or short — The named trigger never occurred. Keep only a finite conditional watch; do not create a standing order.
- Wait; no duration long or short — The named trigger never occurred. Keep only a finite conditional watch; do not create a standing order.
- Wait; no duration long or short — The named trigger never occurred. Keep only a finite conditional watch; do not create a standing order.
- Wait; no duration long or short — The named trigger never occurred. Keep only a finite conditional watch; do not create a standing order.
- Wait; no duration long or short — The named trigger never occurred. Keep only a finite conditional watch; do not create a standing order.
- Wait; no duration long or short — The named trigger never occurred. Keep only a finite conditional watch; do not create a standing order.
- Wait; no duration long or short — The named trigger never occurred. Retire instead of extending the Wait.
- Wait; no duration long or short — The named trigger never occurred. Retire instead of extending the Wait.
- Wait; no duration long or short — The named trigger never occurred. Retire instead of extending the Wait.
- Wait; no duration long or short — The named trigger never occurred. Retire instead of extending the Wait.
- Wait; no duration long or short — The named trigger never occurred. Retire instead of extending the Wait.
- Wait on duration; no ZN order — The named trigger never occurred. Retire instead of extending the Wait.
- Wait on duration; no ZN order — The named trigger never occurred. Retire instead of extending the Wait.
- Wait on duration until payrolls — The named trigger never occurred. Retire instead of extending the Wait.
- Wait on ZNZ26; no duration trade before payrolls — The named trigger never occurred. Retire instead of extending the Wait.
- Wait / Avoid chasing ZNZ26 after the yield spike — The named trigger never occurred. Retire instead of extending the Wait.
- Wait / Avoid chasing ZNZ26 after the yield spike — The named trigger never occurred. Retire instead of extending the Wait.
- Wait / Avoid chasing ZN shorts — The named trigger never occurred. Retire instead of extending the Wait.
- Wait / Avoid chasing ZN shorts — The named trigger never occurred. Retire instead of extending the Wait.
- Wait / Avoid chasing ZN shorts — The named trigger never occurred. Retire instead of extending the Wait.
- Wait / Avoid chasing ZN shorts — The named trigger never occurred. Retire instead of extending the Wait.
- Wait / Avoid chasing ZN shorts — The named trigger never occurred. Retire instead of extending the Wait.
- Wait / Avoid chasing ZN shorts — The named trigger never occurred. Retire instead of extending the Wait.
- Wait / Avoid chasing Treasury shorts — The named trigger never occurred. Retire instead of extending the Wait.
- Wait / Avoid chasing the retired ZT short — The named trigger never occurred. Retire instead of extending the Wait.
- Wait / Avoid chasing the retired ZT short — The named trigger never occurred. Retire instead of extending the Wait.
- Wait / Avoid chasing the retired ZT short — The named trigger never occurred. Retire instead of extending the Wait.
- Wait / Avoid chasing the retired ZT short — The named trigger never occurred. Retire instead of extending the Wait.
- Wait / Avoid chasing the retired ZT short — The named trigger never occurred. Retire instead of extending the Wait.
- Wait / Avoid chasing the retired ZT short — The named trigger never occurred. Retire instead of extending the Wait.
- Wait / Avoid chasing the retired ZT short — The named trigger never occurred. Retire instead of extending the Wait.
- Wait / Avoid chasing the retired ZT short — The named trigger never occurred. Retire instead of extending the Wait.
- Wait / Avoid chasing the retired ZT short — The named trigger never occurred. Retire instead of extending the Wait.
- Wait / Avoid chasing the retired ZT short — The named trigger never occurred. Retire instead of extending the Wait.
- Wait / Avoid chasing the retired ZT short — The named trigger never occurred. Retire instead of extending the Wait.
- Wait / Avoid chasing the retired ZT short — The named trigger never occurred. Retire instead of extending the Wait.
- Wait / Avoid chasing the retired ZT short — The named trigger never occurred. Retire instead of extending the Wait.
- Wait / Avoid chasing the retired ZT short — The named trigger never occurred. Retire instead of extending the Wait.
- Wait / Avoid chasing the retired ZT short — The named trigger never occurred. Retire instead of extending the Wait.
- Wait / Avoid chasing the retired ZT short — The named trigger never occurred. Retire instead of extending the Wait.
- Wait / Avoid chasing the retired ZT short — The named trigger never occurred. Retire instead of extending the Wait.
- Wait / Avoid chasing the retired ZT short — The named trigger never occurred. Retire instead of extending the Wait.
- Wait / Avoid chasing the retired ZT short — The named trigger never occurred. Retire instead of extending the Wait.
- Wait / Avoid chasing the retired ZT short — The named trigger never occurred. Retire instead of extending the Wait.
- Wait / Avoid chasing the retired ZT short — The named trigger never occurred. Retire instead of extending the Wait.
- Wait / Avoid chasing the retired ZT short — The named trigger never occurred. Retire instead of extending the Wait.
- Avoid chasing the retired ZT short — The named trigger never occurred. Retire instead of extending the Wait.
- Avoid chasing the retired ZT short — The named trigger never occurred. Retire instead of extending the Wait.
- Avoid — do not revive the retired 2-year short — The named trigger never occurred. Retire instead of extending the Wait.
- Avoid — do not revive the retired 2-year short — The named trigger never occurred. Retire instead of extending the Wait.
- Avoid — retire the September 22 failed-rally setup — The named trigger never occurred. Retire instead of extending the Wait.
- Wait — auction and failed-rally trigger not reached — Best fresh diversifier, but only after a failed rally. The current price is already below the trigger and speculative shorts are crowded, so do not chase.
- Wait — failed rally after September 22 auction — Best fresh diversifier, but only after a failed rally. The current price is already below the trigger and speculative shorts are crowded, so do not chase.