ATGGLOBAL MARKETS
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Research archiveARCHIVED THESIS

Wheat / soybeans

Retire actionable wheat/soy relative value.

Historical research, not a current entry recommendation. A retired thesis does not imply an executed paper exit.

Archived expression

Long 2 March 2027 wheat · ZWH27 / short 1 March 2027 soybeans · ZSH27

September 18 official settlements 730.00 wheat and 1329.50 soy imply 2W/S 1.0981572. Higher global wheat stocks and stronger projected U.S. soy exports oppose the relative thesis; a ratio below its old gate is not the only reason. September 17 export sales remain unreviewed, not zero. Any future idea requires delivered-wheat demand/basis improvement and new leg-level loss scenarios; retire the numerical gate.

The dated record

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  93. No action — current edge not established — The 2W/S ratio is 1.097818, below the 1.115 gate. Higher projected world wheat stocks and stronger projected U.S. soybean exports oppose the proposed relative trade; soybean crowding permits a correction but is not delivered-wheat demand. The missing September 17 sales outcome remains unreviewed, not evidence of zero sales. No current positive edge is established.
  94. Remain demoted; relative bounce lacks demand confirmation — A modest relative-price improvement does not overcome the dated fundamental countercase or establish delivered-wheat demand.
  95. Remain demoted; no new relative-value entry — The relative fundamental countercase remains stronger than the evidence for a new wheat-over-soybean entry.
  96. Remain demoted / Wait below 1.115 — Relative thesis improved from morning but remains weakened after WASDE.
  97. Demote / Wait below the 1.115 trigger; no reverse — Relative-value thesis weakened and remains below trigger.
  98. Demote; Wait below entry floor and without fresh synchronized legs — Retain only through the existing two-cycle evidence review.
  99. Demote; Wait below entry floor and without physical confirmation — Retain only through the existing two-cycle evidence review.
  100. Demote; Wait below the 1.115 entry band — Retain only through the existing two-cycle evidence review.
  101. Wait; low-conviction watch — Retain only through the existing two-cycle evidence review.
  102. Wait; low-conviction watch — Retain only through the existing two-cycle evidence review.
  103. Wait; low-conviction watch — Retain only through the existing two-cycle evidence review.
  104. Wait — Ratio remains in-band, but the weakened thesis still lacks post-WASDE demand and basis confirmation.
  105. Wait — Weather marginally weakens wheat relative value; zero of two post-WASDE export cycles and no delivered-basis confirmation exist.
  106. Wait — In-band Friday ratio remains insufficient after WASDE; the required post-report physical confirmation is still absent.
  107. Wait — WASDE and physical demand evidence weakened the long-wheat/short-soy thesis; price-band membership alone is insufficient.
  108. Wait for catalyst — Numerical band remains met on carried settlements, but the mandatory noon catalyst and physical confirmation are missing.
  109. Wait — Relative thesis remains conditional. The ratio stays in band, but reported Chinese soybean buying challenges the short leg and the mandatory post-WASDE physical confirmation is future.
  110. Wait — Both current delayed and separate settlement ratios are inside the numerical band. Wheat demand/basis has not strengthened and WASDE has not occurred; retain Wait and zero completed failed post-WASDE cycles.
  111. Wait — The later ratio is inside the numerical band only as an asynchronous indication; completed-session settlements were above it. Wheat inspections weakened and Gulf SRW basis did not strengthen. No post-WASDE physical confirmation.
  112. Wait — The price is inside the proposed band, but the entry also requires post-WASDE export and basis confirmation. Soybean-specific sourcing risk adds a counterargument to the short soybean leg.
  113. Wait — Replace old December/November expression with March/March and require post-WASDE delivered-demand evidence.
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