Market observations retain their individual dates and statuses. This is dated research, not a live price feed.
Agriculture / oilseeds · Enter starter — six micro contractsMarch soybean oil: small outright starter
Low reported oil stocks and the cheaper entry support a small outright oil long. Lower crushing also constrains meal supply, so avoid the meal short.
October16 exact futures; other observations individually dated
Entry conditions
Standard March reference 67.20 plus one adverse 0.02-cent micro tick
Target framework
70.50 cents/lb; reassess sooner if thesis changes
Fundamental invalidation
Observed 64.56 or credible stock rebuilding with recovered crush and weaker oil disappearance; no mechanical averaging down.
Stop and risk limitation
64.56 cents/lb; separate 60.00 gap stress
Strongest counterargument
Scenario weights are analytical judgments, not measured probabilities. Gap and basis risks can exceed a stop.
Next catalyst
Friday import prices, industrial production and dated positioning; thesis-specific physical and policy evidence.
Roll and delivery
Exit February 12, 2027 before February 19 micro expiry; no automatic roll.
Market evidence
Six 6,000-lb micros; buffered risk $1,246.20, gap stress $3,298.20; carried conservative paper margin reserve $15,000.
Expected return: interpretation
See the report for net scenario payoffs and actual simulated results.
Source references
- ADMIS October 15 NOPA account
- IGC October 15 outlook
- CME micro contract facts
- IBKR standard March reference