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Agriculture / oilseeds · Avoid oil/meal re-entryMarch micro soybean oil / meal relative-value starter
Avoid re-entry: a better current spread still has negative modeled net economics.
Research view only. Review NOPA October 15 crush and oilstocks; no new fundamentalrelease since lastcutoff.
EXACT EXPRESSIONNo position or order; the prior 3:3 package remains closed
DATED RESEARCH QUOTEOil 68.52 ask; meal 360.80 bid standard proxy
Exact standard native references; hypothetical micro implementation uses explicit proxies
Entry conditions
No order. Review October 15 NOPA crush and oil stocks together before revisiting the relative-value thesis.
Target framework
No active target; the position is closed
Fundamental invalidation
Re-entry requires fresh post-Grain-Stocks evidence, a positive current-price tree and verified micro-contract implementation; no automatic reversal.
Stop and risk limitation
No active stop; the position is closed
Strongest counterargument
Strong soybean inspections, firm processor basis and 22.7 million tons of projected meal exports can support the short-meal leg. Oil's curve remains in carry and funds reduced oil length. The 1:1 contract ratio retains outright commodity beta.
Next catalyst
October 15 NOPA monthly crush and oil stocks, 16:00 UTC.
Roll and delivery
No roll. The package was closed September 29 at 04:11 UTC.
Market evidence
Three micro oil/meal pairs fit mechanically; standard same-month references are proxies. Oil multiplier 60 USD per cent/lb; meal 10 USD per USD/ton; signed one-to-one pairs.
Expected return: interpretation
No new soy trade; prior package remains closed.
Source references
- CME October 9 agricultural preliminary bulletin
- CME Micro Agriculture FAQ
- MarketWatch March soybean oil
- MarketWatch March soybean meal
- USDA Grain Stocks calendar
How the view evolved
- Avoid oil/meal re-entry — Avoid re-entry: a better current spread still has negative modeled net economics.
- Avoid oil/meal re-entry — Fresh proxies leave oil-over-meal expected value negative; the prior position stays closed.
- Avoid oil/meal re-entry — Higher oil and lower meal make the closed relative-value package less attractive. Keep it closed.
- Avoid oil/meal re-entry — Higher oil and lower meal make the closed relative-value package less attractive. Keep it closed.
- Avoid oil/meal re-entry — Higher oil and lower meal make the closed relative-value package less attractive. Keep it closed.
- Avoid oil/meal re-entry — Higher oil and lower meal make the closed relative-value package less attractive. Keep it closed.
- Keep oil/meal closed — Fresh exact March standard closes repair the stale inputs, but the current scenario tree is essentially flat after costs and offers weak endpoint asymmetry. Keep the package closed.
- Keep oil/meal closed — Fresh exact March standard closes repair the stale inputs, but the current scenario tree is essentially flat after costs and offers weak endpoint asymmetry. Keep the package closed.
- Keep oil/meal closed — Fresh exact March standard closes repair the stale inputs, but the current scenario tree is essentially flat after costs and offers weak endpoint asymmetry. Keep the package closed.
- Keep oil/meal closed — Fresh exact March standard closes repair the stale inputs, but the current scenario tree is essentially flat after costs and offers weak endpoint asymmetry. Keep the package closed.
- Keep oil/meal closed — Fresh exact March standard closes repair the stale inputs, but the current scenario tree is essentially flat after costs and offers weak endpoint asymmetry. Keep the package closed.
- Remain flat oil/meal package — Fresh exact March standard closes repair the stale inputs, but the current scenario tree is essentially flat after costs and offers weak endpoint asymmetry. Keep the package closed.
- Remain flat oil/meal package — Historical context only: the completed oil/meal package remains closed because the carried tree is negative after costs and no current package quote supports re-entry.
- Remain flat oil/meal package — Historical context only: the completed oil/meal package remains closed because the carried tree is negative after costs and no current package quote supports re-entry.
- Remain flat oil/meal package — Historical context only: the completed oil/meal package remains closed because the carried tree is negative after costs and no current package quote supports re-entry.
- Remain flat oil/meal package — Historical context only: the completed oil/meal package remains closed because the carried tree is negative after costs and no current package quote supports re-entry.
- Remain flat oil/meal package — Historical context only: the completed oil/meal package remains closed because the carried tree is negative after costs and no current package quote supports re-entry.
- Remain flat oil/meal package — Historical context only: the completed oil/meal package remains closed because the carried tree is negative after costs and no current package quote supports re-entry.
- Remain flat oil/meal package — Historical context only: the completed oil/meal package remains closed because the carried tree is negative after costs and no current package quote supports re-entry.
- Remain flat oil/meal package — Historical context only: the completed oil/meal package remains closed because the carried tree is negative after costs and no current package quote supports re-entry.
- Remain flat oil/meal package — Historical context only: the completed oil/meal package remains closed because the carried tree is negative after costs and no current package quote supports re-entry.
- Remain flat oil/meal package — Historical context only: the completed oil/meal package remains closed because the carried tree is negative after costs and no current package quote supports re-entry.
- Remain flat oil/meal package — Historical context only: the completed oil/meal package remains closed because the carried tree is negative after costs and no current package quote supports re-entry.
- Remain flat oil/meal package — Historical context only: the completed oil/meal package remains closed because the carried tree is negative after costs and no current package quote supports re-entry.
- Remain flat oil/meal package — Historical context only: the completed oil/meal package remains closed because the carried tree is negative after costs and no current package quote supports re-entry.
- Remain flat oil/meal package — Historical context only: the completed oil/meal package remains closed because the carried tree is negative after costs and no current package quote supports re-entry.
- Remain flat oil/meal package — Historical context only: the completed oil/meal package remains closed because the carried tree is negative after costs and no current package quote supports re-entry.
- Remain flat oil/meal package — Historical context only: the completed oil/meal package remains closed because the carried tree is negative after costs and no current package quote supports re-entry.
- Remain flat oil/meal package — Historical context only: the completed oil/meal package remains closed because the carried tree is negative after costs and no current package quote supports re-entry.
- Remain flat oil/meal package — Historical context only: the completed oil/meal package remains closed because the carried tree is negative after costs and no current package quote supports re-entry.
- Remain flat oil/meal package — Historical context only: the completed oil/meal package remains closed because the carried tree is negative after costs and no current package quote supports re-entry.
- Remain flat oil/meal package — Historical context only: the completed oil/meal package remains closed because the carried tree is negative after costs and no current package quote supports re-entry.
- Remain flat oil/meal package — Historical context only: the completed oil/meal package remains closed because the carried tree is negative after costs and no current package quote supports re-entry.
- Remain flat oil/meal package — Historical context only: the completed oil/meal package remains closed because the carried tree is negative after costs and no current package quote supports re-entry.
- Remain flat oil/meal package — Historical context only: the completed oil/meal package remains closed because the carried tree is negative after costs and no current package quote supports re-entry.
- Remain flat oil/meal package — Historical context only: the completed oil/meal package remains closed because the carried tree is negative after costs and no current package quote supports re-entry.
- Remain flat oil/meal package — Historical context only: the completed oil/meal package remains closed because the carried tree is negative after costs and no current package quote supports re-entry.
- Remain flat oil/meal package — Historical context only: the completed oil/meal package remains closed because the carried tree is negative after costs and no current package quote supports re-entry.
- Remain flat oil/meal package — Historical context only: the completed oil/meal package remains closed because the carried tree is negative after costs and no current package quote supports re-entry.
- Remain flat oil/meal package — Historical context only: the completed oil/meal package remains closed because the carried tree is negative after costs and no current package quote supports re-entry.
- Remain flat oil/meal package — Historical context only: the completed oil/meal package remains closed because the carried tree is negative after costs and no current package quote supports re-entry.
- Remain flat oil/meal package — Biofuel oil demand grows much faster than domestic meal use while additional crush produces meal; express the divergence with small cash-settled micros.
- Remain flat oil/meal package — Biofuel oil demand grows much faster than domestic meal use while additional crush produces meal; express the divergence with small cash-settled micros.
- Remain flat oil/meal package — Biofuel oil demand grows much faster than domestic meal use while additional crush produces meal; express the divergence with small cash-settled micros.
- Remain flat oil/meal package — Biofuel oil demand grows much faster than domestic meal use while additional crush produces meal; express the divergence with small cash-settled micros.
- Remain flat oil/meal package — Biofuel oil demand grows much faster than domestic meal use while additional crush produces meal; express the divergence with small cash-settled micros.
- Remain flat oil/meal package — Biofuel oil demand grows much faster than domestic meal use while additional crush produces meal; express the divergence with small cash-settled micros.
- Remain flat oil/meal package — Biofuel oil demand grows much faster than domestic meal use while additional crush produces meal; express the divergence with small cash-settled micros.
- Remain flat oil/meal package — Biofuel oil demand grows much faster than domestic meal use while additional crush produces meal; express the divergence with small cash-settled micros.
- Remain flat oil/meal package — Biofuel oil demand grows much faster than domestic meal use while additional crush produces meal; express the divergence with small cash-settled micros.
- Remain flat oil/meal package — Biofuel oil demand grows much faster than domestic meal use while additional crush produces meal; express the divergence with small cash-settled micros.
- Remain flat oil/meal package — Biofuel oil demand grows much faster than domestic meal use while additional crush produces meal; express the divergence with small cash-settled micros.
- Remain flat MZLH27 / MZMH27 after USDA — Biofuel oil demand grows much faster than domestic meal use while additional crush produces meal; express the divergence with small cash-settled micros.
- Remain flat MZLH27 / MZMH27 after USDA — Biofuel oil demand grows much faster than domestic meal use while additional crush produces meal; express the divergence with small cash-settled micros.
- Remain flat MZLH27 / MZMH27 after USDA — Biofuel oil demand grows much faster than domestic meal use while additional crush produces meal; express the divergence with small cash-settled micros.
- Remain flat MZLH27 / MZMH27 after USDA — Biofuel oil demand grows much faster than domestic meal use while additional crush produces meal; express the divergence with small cash-settled micros.
- Remain flat MZLH27 / MZMH27; no pre-USDA re-entry — Biofuel oil demand grows much faster than domestic meal use while additional crush produces meal; express the divergence with small cash-settled micros.
- Remain flat MZLH27 / MZMH27; no pre-USDA re-entry — Biofuel oil demand grows much faster than domestic meal use while additional crush produces meal; express the divergence with small cash-settled micros.
- Remain flat MZLH27 / MZMH27; no pre-USDA re-entry — Biofuel oil demand grows much faster than domestic meal use while additional crush produces meal; express the divergence with small cash-settled micros.
- Remain flat MZLH27 / MZMH27; no re-entry — Biofuel oil demand grows much faster than domestic meal use while additional crush produces meal; express the divergence with small cash-settled micros.
- Remain flat MZLH27 / MZMH27; no re-entry — Biofuel oil demand grows much faster than domestic meal use while additional crush produces meal; express the divergence with small cash-settled micros.
- Remain flat MZLH27 / MZMH27; no re-entry — Biofuel oil demand grows much faster than domestic meal use while additional crush produces meal; express the divergence with small cash-settled micros.
- Exit +3 MZLH27 / −3 MZMH27; no reversal — Biofuel oil demand grows much faster than domestic meal use while additional crush produces meal; express the divergence with small cash-settled micros.
- Hold +3 MZLH27 / −3 MZMH27; no add — Biofuel oil demand grows much faster than domestic meal use while additional crush produces meal; express the divergence with small cash-settled micros.
- Hold +3 MZLH27 / −3 MZMH27; no add — Biofuel oil demand grows much faster than domestic meal use while additional crush produces meal; express the divergence with small cash-settled micros.
- Hold +3 MZLH27 / −3 MZMH27; no add — Biofuel oil demand grows much faster than domestic meal use while additional crush produces meal; express the divergence with small cash-settled micros.
- Hold +3 MZLH27 / −3 MZMH27; no add — Biofuel oil demand grows much faster than domestic meal use while additional crush produces meal; express the divergence with small cash-settled micros.
- Enter +3 MZLH27 / −3 MZMH27 — Biofuel oil demand grows much faster than domestic meal use while additional crush produces meal; express the divergence with small cash-settled micros.