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Research archiveARCHIVED THESIS

Natural gas calendar

Demote winter-premium compression to context.

Historical research, not a current entry recommendation. A retired thesis does not imply an executed paper exit.

Archived expression

Short January 2027 natural gas · NGF27 / long March 2027 · NGH27

Fresh January 3.733 at 23:21Z minus March 2.801 at 23:16Z = 0.932 indicative, not executable. Only 0.332 reward to 0.60 versus 0.418 to 1.35 remains. National gas stocks are above their norm but South Central salt remains below its norm. Reopen only on a newly enlarged premium with stronger regional salt/LNG/weather evidence; January expiry precedes the February 2 horizon and has no approved roll.

The dated record

  1. Retired research — Demote winter-premium compression to context.
  2. Retired research — Demote winter-premium compression to context.
  3. Retired research — Demote winter-premium compression to context.
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  93. Wait — economics unresolved — The January-minus-March premium is 0.931, below the 1.10 gate. National surplus supports compression, but South Central salt weakness, winter deliverability and LNG exposure oppose it. Compensation for short-January convexity has diminished; a leg-level target/adverse scenario and horizon-safe implementation are still missing. Economics remain inconclusive, not disproved by a missing quote.
  94. Wait; $0.954 indication remains below $1.10 — Slightly wider premium, unchanged regional scarcity countercase and no validated adverse-winter package.
  95. Wait; $0.935 indication remains below $1.10 — Below entry with regional scarcity counterevidence; demoted execution status remains.
  96. Wait below the $1.10 premium gate — Conditional compression thesis remains untriggered.
  97. Wait below the $1.10 premium gate; no implicit roll — Conditional calendar watch remains below trigger and lifecycle-constrained.
  98. Wait; premium remains below $1.10 gate — Demote gas; do not roll or fill.
  99. Wait; convergence is more priced and remains below $1.10 gate — Demote gas; do not roll or fill.
  100. Wait; convergence became more priced and remains below the $1.10 gate — Demote gas; do not roll or fill.
  101. Wait; demote from entry consideration — Demote gas; do not roll or fill.
  102. Wait; demote from entry consideration — Demote gas; do not roll or fill.
  103. Wait; demote from entry consideration — Demote gas; do not roll or fill.
  104. Wait — Friday indicative premium remained below entry; synchronized pricing, regional basis/feedgas and adverse-winter clearance are absent.
  105. Wait — No synchronized spread or physical confirmation; Gulf disruption does not mechanically establish U.S. Jan/Mar value.
  106. Wait — External scarcity tail increased while Friday’s indicative premium remained below entry; no synchronized reopen quote exists.
  107. Wait — Premium widened but remains below entry; fresh regional and LNG evidence raises winter-tail risk rather than confirming convergence.
  108. Wait — Winter compression watch remains plausible but below entry and lacks regional physical and execution confirmation.
  109. Wait — Aggregate storage surplus helps a future fade, but South-Central and salt withdrawals preserve regional deliverability risk. The price gate and execution package remain incomplete.
  110. Wait — Published STEO reinforces a storage cushion, but the entry premium remains below $1.10 and the target is still absent. No trade qualifies; winter and LNG confirmation remain unavailable.
  111. Wait — The January premium compressed, leaving less payoff for a future fade; fresh European winter/LNG stress raises the adverse tail. U.S. inventory remains above normal, but the $1.10 entry gate is not met.
  112. Wait — The curve changed little and the premium remained below the required $1.10. Winter and physical-market evidence are still required before a calendar fade.
  113. Wait — Wait; above-average U.S. storage supports winter-premium normalization, but international supply tails persist.
ATG / GLOBAL MARKETS

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