ATGGLOBAL MARKETS
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OAT / Bund

Avoid undefined OAT/Bund package; context only.

Historical research, not a current entry recommendation. A retired thesis does not imply an executed paper exit.

Archived expression

December 2026 Euro-OAT · FOATZ26 / December 2026 Euro-Bund · FGBLZ26; tightening watch, hedge ratio unverified

Dated FOATZ26 111.57 and FGBLZ26 120.49 are carried September 18 observations, not a sovereign yield spread. New close flags have no clock and do not supersede them. CTD, conversion factors, repo/basis, DV01 and integer hedge counts remain decision-essential. Do not assume 1:1 or invent a dollar EV; December lifecycle also precedes the February 2 horizon. Reopen only a fully constructed risk-matched package.

The dated record

  1. Retired research — Avoid undefined OAT/Bund package; context only.
  2. Retired research — Avoid undefined OAT/Bund package; context only.
  3. Retired research — Avoid undefined OAT/Bund package; context only.
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  93. No action — economics unresolved — Auction absorption does not show that French fiscal risk is overpriced. Separate frozen prices cannot demonstrate yield-spread compression; CTD, conversion factors, repo/basis and DV01 are required for a meaningful package. The valuation proposition is unproven separately from these construction gaps. Retain context-only review, not an equal-notional spread.
  94. No action; comparative valuation remains unsubstantiated — Separate bond prices fell; no verified convergence trade emerges.
  95. No action; retain context-only demotion — French supply was absorbed; a relative-value futures trade remains unsubstantiated.
  96. No action; implementation package remains undefined — CTD, conversion factor, repo/basis and DV01 inputs remain unresolved.
  97. No action; implementation package remains undefined — OAT/Bund remains blocked.
  98. No action; current DV01-safe package remains undefined — Demote OAT/Bund to context-only research.
  99. No action; current DV01-safe package remains undefined — Demote OAT/Bund to context-only research.
  100. No action; hedge ratio and exact synchronized pair remain undefined — Demote OAT/Bund to context-only research.
  101. No action; context only — Demote OAT/Bund to context-only research.
  102. No action; context only — Demote OAT/Bund to context-only research.
  103. No action; context only — Demote OAT/Bund to context-only research.
  104. No action — No CTD, conversion-factor, cash-bond, repo, DV01 or integer-hedge implementation; raw price subtraction remains invalid.
  105. No action — No CTD/repo/DV01/package implementation; macro context is not a tradable spread.
  106. No action — Fresh inflation risk changes broad duration context, not the still-undefined OAT/Bund hedge.
  107. No action — Conversion factors and deliverables are now verified, but CTD, repo and futures-adjusted DV01 inputs remain insufficient for a trade.
  108. No action — French fiscal risk merits monitoring but cannot be expressed defensibly with the missing hedge inputs.
  109. No action — ECB and energy shock drove both contracts lower, but raw futures subtraction is not a sovereign spread. Without CTD/DV01/repo inputs, the idea remains context only.
  110. Wait — Official December settlement coverage is current, but the economic hedge remains undefined. ECB is inside 12 hours; stay unrated and Wait.
  111. Wait — Exact December official prices materially improve coverage. CTD, conversion factors, DV01, repo/basis and contract hedge counts remain unverified; separate prices do not define a tradable tightening package.
  112. Wait — Exact December contracts were identified, but cheapest-to-deliver, DV01 matching, and basis remain unverified. No tradable hedge ratio or expected return can be inferred from the unmatched prices.
  113. Wait — Wait; conflicting OAT vendor marks and missing CTD/DV01 prevent a tradable package.
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