No immediate entry. Four conditional research candidates.

Global futures opportunity analysis — September 6, 2026

Monthly opportunity review. Four-month horizon: January 6, 2027.

Decision: No immediate entry qualifies at the Sunday cutoff. Promote a conditional March sugar short; retain yen as the preferred defensive macro thesis; require new evidence before adding wheat/soy or activating platinum/gold. Retire the Dow/Nasdaq rotation from the best-trade board. NZD/CAD was examined as a new candidate and did not earn promotion.

All decisions describe research theses; they do not describe actual holdings or orders. Contract counts below define spread ratios and calculation units, not account sizing.

1. Date, cutoff time, and data status

Research date: Sunday, September 6, 2026. Research cutoff is 20:25 EDT / 00:25 UTC September 7. Most CME quote observations are 19:11–19:50 EDT; Nikkei extends to 20:11, and the supplemental metals audit to 20:02. Each available last-trade/feed timestamp is retained in the quote appendix. Retrieval time is not represented as execution time.

The common valuation benchmark is Friday, September 4 settlement: CME's priorSettle field, Cboe's dated official settlement table, and ICE settlements explicitly identified by the quote vendor. The ICE values are vendor-reported settlements, not an independently downloaded ICE settlement file. Sunday CME observations are ten-minute delayed intraday marks, not live quotes. Separately stamped leg marks are diagnostic only. No simultaneous executable spread bid/ask was verified.

CME FX, equity, rates, metals and energy trading had reopened. European regular sessions and the latest completed HKEX/NSE day sessions remained September 4. No refreshed grain last was available in the audited CME feed, so grain calculations use settlements. Holiday trading can occur without a new settlement: CME confirms no CME/CBOT/NYMEX/COMEX settlements on September 7.

Effective information dates: U.S. August employment released September 4; CFTC positions as of September 1, released September 4; EIA petroleum/gas inventories for the week ended August 28; FAO cereal balance September 4; RBNZ and BoC decisions September 2; WPIC's currently published forecast still covers Q1 2026, with its next update September 9. These are not all contemporaneous observations.

Coverage limitations: a uniform one-month history, executable depth, transaction costs, and futures-specific CTD/DV01 data were not verified across all venues. Several European, Australian and emerging-market feeds were unavailable, derived, or internally inconsistent. Those markets were screened for economic relevance but were not promoted from substitute cash, CFD, continuous-contract, or model-only prices. This is a broad worldwide screen, not a claim that every listed contract was price-verified.

The latest complete prior board available for comparison is the August 25 monitor. A later completed weekly board was unavailable. Its numbers are identified as prior reported benchmarks; they are not relabeled as newly verified historical settlements.

2. Current global market snapshot

Selected exact contracts, with the full CME observation audit appended. Prices are in contract-native units. S4 means September 4 settlement; V4 means a vendor's September 4 reported close/settlement, with the distinction stated. Sunday changes are against S4, not a fabricated full daily return.

Sources: [CME exact feeds in Appendix A](#appendix-a-exact-cme-quote-audit), HKEX, NSE dated bhavcopy, Bund, TTF, EUA, Brent/WTI completed session, sugar, cocoa, coffee, Cboe dated settlements.

No uniform one-month change is asserted. As limited vendor checks, SBH27 shows +9.33% and CCZ26 +5.61% over its displayed month window; those are not a common global return series. SBH27, CCZ26.

3. Executive regime view

Observed: U.S. employment grew 162,000 in August, unemployment stayed at 4.1%, and the two prior months were revised upward by a combined 55,000. This weakens an imminent-recession duration-long argument. Wages rose 0.3% monthly and 3.1% yearly. BLS, September 4.

OPEC+'s seven participating countries kept October required production at September levels on September 6. That is a quota decision, not evidence that blocked barrels can reach consumers. The next meeting is October 4. OPEC statement.

The EIA's week-ended-August-28 report shows crude inventories falling 4.5 million barrels and distillates remaining 14% below their five-year average despite a 0.8-million-barrel weekly build. Refineries ran at 98%. Demand is not uniformly strong: four-week distillate supplied was 6% below the previous year. EIA. U.S. gas stocks were 3,214 Bcf, 160 Bcf above the five-year average, after a 30 Bcf injection. EIA gas.

Market-implied: WTI's +$6.02 October–December backwardation and the large product difference price immediate scarcity. SOFR's +14 bp March-over-December implied-rate slope prices tighter later conditions, but is not a pure probability of a particular FOMC decision. BOJ September tightening is already highly anticipated: a September 4 report put a quarter-point hike at 97%. Reuters report.

Four-month judgment: Resilient activity plus restricted energy supply is the central case. The better remaining opportunities are selective normalization or relative supply/positioning discrepancies, with yen retained for tightening/repatriation and growth-break protection. Broad long duration, broad equity shorts, and wholesale commodity fades lack adequate confirmation. Energy relief remains possible but cannot be assumed from negotiations or quotas alone.

4. What changed since the last available board

Comparisons below use the August 25 reported board and the September 4 common benchmark. They are neither one-day changes nor actual trade returns. A lower ratio does not by itself establish a better trade. Intraperiod stop touches cannot be reconstructed from endpoint snapshots.

Nvidia source: company's August 26 results. Wheat source: FAO September 4. Cocoa context: ADM September 4. OAT conflict: vendor page. Other levels link to Section 2 and Appendix A.

The major prior-24-hour verified policy development is OPEC's unchanged October quota decision. Most meaningful macro/positioning evidence arrived Friday or earlier; it is not represented as new Sunday data. Sunday WTI strength and softer January gas are delayed reopening observations, not a full-session regime verdict.

5. Global opportunity map

This map distinguishes economic screening from instrument qualification. Missing prices are a reason to withhold a recommendation, not evidence of no opportunity. Regional policy source: BoC, RBNZ, ECB September expectations, CFTC financial futures.

6. What is already priced

Scores measure how much of the named directional thesis is already reflected: 0 unpriced, 1 barely, 2 partly, 3 substantial, 4 mostly, 5 essentially fully/crowded. They are judgment, not a market statistic or probability.

CFTC categories are futures-only managed money for commodities and leveraged funds for FX. Financial data also show CAD net −68,750, NZD −22,338 and yen −102,188 as of September 1. NZD shorts were already covering; CAD shorts were crowded. No post-September-2 positioning change is inferred. CFTC agriculture, metals, financials.

7. What is still not fully priced

Sugar: A very large speculative long is harder to justify if the forecast global deficit remains small. ADM reports ISO's 2026/27 estimate at only 200,000 tonnes. The transmission is disappointment, long liquidation, then a lower winter premium. This is a conditional inference; lower Brazilian sugar output and oil-driven ethanol economics can defeat it. ADM.

Yen: A September hike is largely priced. Sustained repatriation, further hikes and a later U.S. growth slowdown are less certain and provide the remaining thesis. Those mechanisms, rather than repeating the already-known September decision, justify retention.

Wheat/soy: FAO raised wheat output to 810.7 million tonnes, but stocks accumulating behind restricted Black Sea routes are not equivalent to easily delivered import supply. The opportunity exists only if buyers actually switch toward deliverable wheat while soybean optimism remains crowded. That requires export/basis confirmation. FAO.

Platinum/gold: WPIC's existing forecast is a 297 koz deficit with end-year above-ground stocks of 1,747 koz. The tradable surprise would be a deeper or more persistent deficit, not the existence of this already-published forecast. Counterevidence is material: total demand is forecast to fall 9% and recycling to rise 9%. WPIC.

8. Full market analysis

A. U.S./Canada equities. Fresh ES/NQ/YM curves and Nvidia's company release do not establish a durable value-over-growth edge. The previous YM/NQ catalyst failed to produce sufficient lasting relative confirmation. Exit that research thesis; do not infer an outright Nasdaq long from that decision.

B. Europe/UK equities. Cheap valuation alone does not pay for uncertain gas supply and rate pressure. A one-for-one FESX/NQ comparison is not a currency- or multiplier-matched hedge. The retrieved Eurex FTUK December model settlement had zero volume and OI, so it is excluded as actionable. No new European equity spread.

C. Japan and North Asia. December USD Nikkei is observable, but yen, imported energy and AI exposure pull in different directions. HSI's March liquidity is limited. No Taiwan/Korea/A50 candidate passed the full exact-quote and catalyst audit. Yen offers the clearer identified mechanism.

D. Emerging markets. NSE September, October and November futures were independently checked against the exchange bhavcopy. That fixes the data problem but does not create an edge. MXN's carry is partly reflected and positioning is long. No B3, JSE or other EM expression was promoted without sufficient futures data.

E. Global rates. Stronger U.S. employment makes an outright duration rally less compelling before CPI. SOFR calendar flattening could become attractive if disinflation limits later hikes, but the observable +14 bp slope does not establish that outcome. European convergence requires CTD/DV01 matching. No cash-spread substitute or nominal one-for-one bond hedge.

F. FX. RBNZ raised its rate to 2.75% on September 2 while BoC held at 2.25%. NZD/CAD was therefore tested from scratch. However, CAD's crowded short position and oil sensitivity offset the policy argument; its modeled return is only +0.44% of gross notional under the stated assumptions, below the weakest retained modeled candidate. Reject promotion. Yen remains preferred, with adverse carry explicitly charged in the model.

G. Crude. Quotas and physical transport are separate variables. October–December WTI has widened to +$6.02. An outright short or calendar short now faces a prompt physical squeeze. The old October implementation also expires too soon. No new crude trade.

H. Refined products. Distillate stocks are low despite very high refinery utilization; weaker supplied volumes are the counterargument. January HO/RB already prices much of this difference. Wait for a lower spread, and do not use two thin, asynchronous overnight last trades as an executable package.

I. Gas, LNG, power, emissions and freight. U.S. storage is above normal but global winter LNG risk remains. The January–March HH premium is below the prior entry trigger. TTF, power and freight require delivered-flow and exact-curve confirmation; none qualifies for a fresh short simply because prices look high. EUA is a screen-only indication, not a fully audited candidate.

J. Metals. Platinum/gold is conditional on new physical evidence; it is not dollar-neutral at 2:1. The new 5:1 ounce-multiplier package is close to initial dollar matching, but neither beta- nor volatility-neutral. Copper and zinc face location-specific squeezes; a generic shortage narrative is insufficient for a fresh long, and such squeezes also obstruct shorts. Silver/palladium lack a stronger verified catalyst.

K. Agriculture and livestock. March sugar supplies the new conditional fade. March wheat/soy remains a lower-conviction relative idea with a real delivery/flow test. Coffee has already repriced after a major export-data correction; cocoa has competing inventory and weather arguments. Corn, oilseed products, cotton, cattle, hogs and feeders lack sufficiently strong independently verified basis/catalyst combinations for promotion.

L. Volatility. CFE's official curve remains in contango. October/December is not a four-month structure; January/February has only a −.4606-point settlement difference and thin observed deferred activity. Neither long nor short outright VIX is automatically attractive. CFE credit-index futures were also visible in the settlement table, but no usable liquidity/relative-value edge was verified.

M. Regulated crypto. December/January CME BTC and ETH settlements establish contract levels and contango, not an expected-return edge. January liquidity was not established. No perpetuals, spot proxy, cash-and-carry package or new crypto recommendation.

Additional physical-market sources: Reuters zinc, September 2 and the dated public releases in Sections 2–7. The zinc URL is contextual only; no zinc quote is used as actionable.

9. Four-month scenario tree

These are newly assigned subjective research weights, not inferred option probabilities or calibrated frequencies.

The known August scenario excerpt assigned 20% to re-escalation and 10%/5% to growth/AI breaks. This fresh tree gives escalation 25% and keeps those two tail weights unchanged. The incomplete earlier base/relief rows prevent a full numerical transition table.

Correlation alert: sugar short, PL/GC and NZD/CAD all lose in the modeled supply-shock scenario; different commodity names do not make them independent bets. Yen can also initially suffer from an import-price shock or rising U.S. yields. No empirical correlation matrix was estimated from asynchronous snapshots.

10. Global Top Opportunity Board — four qualified candidates

The ranked board below contains the qualifying research candidates. Dollar payoffs from differently sized contracts are not directly comparable.

New/displaced: Sugar is the only new promotion. YM/NQ is displaced from the best-trade board because the fresh company evidence and relative trend no longer offer enough edge. Wheat remains qualified only conditionally, with March legs replacing the awkward December/November expression. Platinum is the weakest retained modeled candidate. NZD/CAD's +0.44% gross scenario expectation is below platinum's +1.15%, with no superior liquidity case, so it does not displace platinum. None of those small expected-return differences is statistically precise.

Return framework and leaderboards

The following values are analyst scenario estimates, not observed prices or promised returns. Denominator is initial outright notional, or sum of absolute leg notionals for a spread. They are not returns on margin, account capital, or the small net spread value. Positive-scenario mass is the total probability of modeled positive terminal outcomes, not a probability of hitting the target before the stop.

For yen and platinum, January 6 outcomes use still-trading March yen and April platinum contracts. The model assumes December-to-March yen roll cost remains today's .000046 ($575 per contract), and January-to-April platinum roll cost remains today's $16.50/oz ($4,125 per five-contract PL leg). The rejected FX cross uses today's December/March gaps, a net $545 roll credit per 5:4 package. These are explicit constant-curve assumptions, not quotes for a future roll. Actual costs and correlations can change materially.

The model excludes commissions, slippage and path-dependent stop execution; therefore these are gross terminal thesis-value estimates after the stated roll assumptions, not net expected returns of a fully specified trading system. A defensible net realized-return estimate is unavailable. Stops can terminate a thesis before the modeled terminal date, and gaps can exceed the indicated stop distance.

An adverse ten-percentage-point shift from the sugar relief case to its supply-shock case reduces its modeled expected return by about 2.9 percentage points, erasing the current-entry estimate. A similarly adverse shift from platinum relief to growth break reduces its expected return by about 2.4 points. These sensitivities explain the moderate convictions and conditional decisions.

Highest raw modeled upside: sugar short, +13.4% in the relief case. Best probability-weighted: sugar +2.6% and yen +2.5% are effectively tied given model uncertainty; sugar improves to about +3.9% if a 19.30 entry is actually obtained with unchanged outcomes. Best conditional target/stop asymmetry: sugar about 2.1:1 at 19.30, target 17.50, stop 20.15. These leaderboards cover qualified modeled candidates, not every conceivable futures outcome worldwide.

11. Best trades right now — four research cards

1. Sugar normalization: short SBH27

• Current: 19.05c/lb Sep 4 settlement reported by WSJ; 18.98 delayed last at 12:59 EDT Sep 4. Friday volume 90,244; OI 418,618. Market not treated as live. Quote.

• Entry: Wait for a retest into 19.20–19.40 that fails to hold; analytical reference 19.30. A gap lower is not an instruction to chase. No entry is confirmed now.

• Target framework: 18.00 first, then 17.50; 16.50 is an upside scenario for the short, not the base target. Price invalidation: 20.15. At 19.30, target/stop distance is about 2.1:1.

• Fundamental invalidation: material upward revision to the global deficit, sustained deterioration in Brazil's sugar share/output, or export restrictions that prevent the expected supply response. Strongest counterargument: expensive oil diverts cane toward ethanol while weather restricts available sugar.

• Catalyst/path: next Brazil crush/sugar-share reports, weather evolution, Indian/Thai export decisions and September 11 COT. Exact next UNICA release time was not verified. A falling price with continuing long liquidation is the confirmation; crowding alone is insufficient.

• Carry/roll: March maturity covers January 6. October-to-March premium is not guaranteed profit and should not be double-counted on top of terminal-price estimates. LTD February 26, 2027; FND March 1. Physical delivery. ICE contract and expiry.

• Specs: 112,000 lb, 0.01c tick = $11.20; notional $21,336 at 19.05. Hypothetical stop-distance loss from 19.30 to 20.15 is $952 per contract before gaps/costs. ICE specifications.

• Decision: Promote conditional, priced 2/5, conviction 3/5. Cancel the setup if scarcity evidence strengthens; do not simply widen the stop.

2. Yen: retain the defensive macro thesis

• Current: 6JZ26 .006450 S4; .0064505 at 19:46:50 EDT Sep 6, ten-minute delayed, volume 283. CME.

• Entry/add: Existing research thesis retained. A new add requires .00635–.00639 plus intact policy/repatriation evidence and usable quotes; current price is above that band. This month's band is an analytical entry preference, not a claim of a measured support level.

• Targets/stop: .00670–.00680, with .00675 as the central target; .00618 price invalidation. Fresh-entry reference .00637 gives about 2.0:1 central reward/risk. The current .00645 has less headroom.

• Fundamental invalidation: BOJ delays tightening while U.S. inflation forces materially greater tightening, or repatriation/intervention support fails to translate into sustained currency demand. Counterargument: September's hike is nearly priced and the U.S. economy remains resilient; Japan suffers from expensive imported energy.

• Catalysts: Japanese revised GDP September 7 at 19:50 EDT; U.S. CPI September 11; FOMC September 16; BOJ September 18 Japan time. A hike accompanied by no forward tightening signal may be a catalyst disappointment rather than bullish news.

• Carry/roll: December is .000045 above September. December-to-March premium .000046 implies a $575 modeled roll debit for a long if unchanged. Review roll December 7–11, before 6JZ26 last trade December 14; 6JH27 last trade March 15, 2027. Stop/targets must be adjusted by the actual calendar gap at roll, not copied blindly.

• Specs: JPY12.5m contract, quoted in USD per JPY, .0000005 tick = $6.25; initial notional $80,625. Physically delivered currency, so close or roll before delivery milestones. CME contract page, CFTC contract unit.

• Decision: Hold, priced 3.5/5, conviction 3/5. Probability-weighted gross estimate +2.5% is sensitive to the growth-break scenarios and the roll assumption.

3. Wheat versus soy: change the months and raise the evidence requirement

• Expression/current: Long 2 ZWH27 (March 2027 wheat), short 1 ZSH27 (March 2027 soybeans); S4 749.25c / 1,330.25c. Monitor ratio 2W/S = 1.126480 and linear spread 2W−S = 168.25c/bu. Ratio percentage change is not a package return. Wheat, soybeans.

• Entry: 1.115–1.135, only after September 11 WASDE plus improving deliverable wheat export/basis evidence. The price band is already satisfied on settlements; the evidence gate is not. No automatic addition.

• Targets/stop: ratio 1.18–1.20; stop 1.08. At the benchmark, central-upper 1.20 target offers approximately 1.6:1 ratio-distance reward/risk. This is an analytical ratio stop, not an exchange-native single-price order.

• Fundamental invalidation: normalized Black Sea shipments/insurance, stronger exportable wheat supplies without import switching, or U.S. soybean supply damage that overwhelms the relative leg. Counterargument: FAO's larger wheat crop and a maritime settlement can erase the delivery premium even while headline risk persists.

• Catalysts/path: WASDE, weekly export sales and actual loadings. If two successive export cycles after WASDE fail to show demand confirmation, demote the trade; do not keep extending the catalyst window.

• Carry/roll: March wheat is 15.25c above December and March soy 20.50c above November. Moving both legs changes the linear spread by +10c/bu, or $500 per 2:1 calculation package at current settlements. This is a change in contract basis, not realized profit. Both March legs avoid a roll through January 6. Vendor contract calendars report first notice February 26, 2027 and last trade March 12 for both legs. Wheat calendar, soybean calendar.

• Specs/liquidity: each leg 5,000 bushels; 0.25c tick = $12.50 per contract. Gross notional $141,437.50. Physical delivery. No fresh grain session volume/depth was available at this cutoff; verify both March books and maximum package slippage before activation. This is dollar-near-matched, not equal-beta. CBOT wheat, soybean.

• Decision: Retain conditional, priced 2.5/5, conviction 3/5. Expected gross +2.3%, but substantial negative transport-normalization scenario.

4. Platinum/gold: wait for the physical report

• Expression/current: Long 5 PLF27, short 1 GCG27. S4 $1,846.9 / $4,512.6; ratio .409276; linear package value $10,465. Supplemental delayed vendor marks: PL $1,837.4 at 20:02 and GC $4,508.4 at 20:01 EDT September 6. These asynchronous marks are not an executable package. PL, GC.

• Entry: September 9 WPIC must preserve or deepen the deficit and tight stock cover, followed by a ratio close above .414 and a defended .410–.414 retest. Current price does not satisfy this confirmation. Reference entry .412.

• Targets/stop: .445–.460, central .450; stop .390. Approximate ratio-distance reward/risk at .412 is 1.7:1. Re-specifying the gold month means the old .415/.395 levels are not mechanically copied.

• Fundamental invalidation: deficit disappears or stock cover rebuilds materially; weaker industrial/automotive demand outweighs supply constraint. Counterargument: gold benefits more from a growth or liquidity shock; platinum's reported total demand is already forecast lower and recycling higher.

• Catalyst: WPIC September 9, time unverified; CPI and FOMC are cross-asset tests. If the report does not confirm and the relative breakout fails, remove this candidate rather than await another quarter.

• Hedge mechanics: five 50-oz PL contracts represent $461,725 versus $451,260 for one 100-oz GC contract. Gross $912,985; net initial long dollar exposure $10,465, about 1.15% of gross. This reduces initial dollar mismatch but does not neutralize beta, volatility or changing correlation.

• Carry/roll: PLF27 first-notice date is reported December 31 and LTD January 27. Roll PL to PLJ27 before year-end delivery exposure, preferably by mid-December once April liquidity is adequate. GCG27 FND January 29 and LTD February 24 are beyond the horizon. Current PL April–January premium $16.50/oz is charged in the model; actual roll is not guaranteed at that level. PL calendar data, GC calendar data, CME exact PL feed.

• Specs/liquidity: PL 50 oz, $0.10 tick=$5; GC 100 oz, $0.10 tick=$10; both physical. Vendor OI: PLF27 22,227 and GCG27 32,692, not real-time measures of depth. Observed Sunday volumes 143/69 are small. CME PL guide, GC fact card.

• Decision: Wait, priced 3/5, conviction 2.5/5. Modeled +1.2% gross is the weakest retained estimate and disappears easily under worse growth/carry assumptions.

12. Trades to cut, reduce, avoid or reverse

Exit the old YM/NQ research thesis and the front-leg crude-normalization implementation. Keep the long-CAD-versus-EUR idea retired. Remove cocoa's old price-only long watch. Do not convert these exits into automatic reversals.

Avoid chasing prompt crude, shorting distillate scarcity before stocks/flows improve, anticipating the HH winter fade below its premium gate, broad long duration ahead of CPI, generic European equity catch-up, crowded commodity momentum, outright short volatility, or crypto without a verified month-specific edge. Gold/silver/copper selloffs do not alone create either value or a safe short.

NZD/CAD illustrates why a new story is insufficient: the initial 5:4 package at .58960/.72585 is nearly dollar-matched, yet the same scenario set produces only +0.44% expected gross return and losses in the supply-shock, growth-break and AI-break cases. It fails to improve on the weakest retained idea after execution risk.

13. Upcoming catalyst calendar

All times below are Toronto EDT unless stated. Times explicitly marked unverified remain uncertain. Relevant catalyst outcomes and market responses are part of the conditional research assessment; no distinct pre-event edge is established.

Calendars: Canadian government tariff announcement, CME holiday, Japan GDP, WPIC, ECB, BLS, EIA oil, EIA gas, USDA, Federal Reserve, BoE, BOJ, CME equity roll, CFTC.

Beyond two weeks but inside the horizon: October 2 U.S. payrolls, October 4 OPEC+, October 28 BoC/RBNZ policy decisions, October 29–30 BOJ, subsequent crop/physical reports, and the December contract rolls. BoC and RBNZ decisions are separate events and times. BLS, OPEC, BoC, RBNZ OCR calendar, BOJ.

14. What would change the decisions

The Nikkei customary roll is September 7, with September expiry September 11; no new September Nikkei leg is proposed. The most urgent mechanical alerts also include September European bond expiry exposure in any legacy September implementation, September equity migration, and CLV26's September 22 last-trade date. No new September bond/equity leg is proposed. Old ZSX26's October 30 FND and ZWZ26/GCZ26's late-November delivery exposure are avoided or replaced where a thesis survives. CCZ26's delivery schedule and October/December VIX expiries make those old expressions unsuitable as untouched four-month holdings.

At the audited snapshots, yen .006450 is above .00618, YM/NQ 1.8075 above 1.76, and old wheat/soy 1.1208 above 1.07. This does not establish that no stop was touched between August 25 and September 4. The old crude short's physical gate never became verified; its numerical price trigger is not treated as authorization to enter. No universal claim of unchanged basis, liquidity or correlation is made where data were absent.

15. Final decision sheet

Best macro: yen, already partly realized in price. Best relative value: March wheat/soy after physical confirmation; PL/GC is a weaker report-dependent alternative. Best second-order idea: sugar normalization through crowding and exportable supply. Best defensive expression: yen, with the explicit energy-import and carry counterarguments. Cleanest imminent direct catalyst: WPIC September 9. Most important overall catalyst: U.S. CPI September 11 at 08:30 EDT.

Ranked urgency: (1) observe holiday and inherited-expiry constraints; (2) retire invalid or inferior old expressions from the research board; (3) watch sugar's entry/fundamental gate; (4) assess WPIC before PL/GC; (5) use CPI/WASDE to decide whether yen/wheat/SOFR ranks change; (6) prepare September and December roll reviews. A material shipping normalization, an inflation surprise or a materially revised sugar/platinum balance could change these decisions before the next research update.

Futures-only public research. No account information was accessed and no orders were placed or modified.

Appendix A. Exact CME quote audit

For non-trading rows, priorSettle is the September 4 reference and no fresh last is asserted. For active rows, the stated timestamp is the public feed's updated field; it does not certify simultaneous execution across legs. Feed volumes are the observed session counts and are not full Friday volumes or displayed depth. Raw strings preserve exchange quote units.