# Higher oil helps Canada’s income—not every currency trade

Research cutoff: **18 October 2026, 04:06 UTC /00:06 Toronto**. Comparison:17 October 22:13:09UTC. The retained four-month outlook runs **13 October–13 February**; individual contracts have earlier planned exits. This is an ordinary monitoring edition, not the Sunday evening weekly review.

**Decision:** Hold six March micro soybean-oil longs and four December E-nano Nasdaq longs, without adding. Crude remains flat after the prior edition’s exit. No new assumed paper execution or pending order is created. New Canadian-dollar and March natural-gas studies improve the opportunity set, but neither offers robust enough value at the available reference.

## What changed—and what was merely reviewed later

Canada illustrates why an energy-price increase is not the same economic shock everywhere. In 17 October remarks reported by Bloomberg, Governor Macklem described support to Canadian income from energy exports alongside higher fuel costs and inflation risks. These are newly reviewed comments, not a new post-cutoff rate decision. The [Bank of Canada event page](https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/10/media-roundtable-governor-macklem-2026-10-17/) verifies the roundtable; it is not a full transcript. [Bloomberg reporting](https://www.canadianmortgagetrends.com/2026/10/macklem-sees-higher-oil-prices-boosting-growth-inflation/) supplies the attributed remarks.

Our inference is narrower than “buy Canada”: national income, household purchasing power and a currency’s prospective return can move differently. A currency position also depends on relative interest rates, the price already paid, trade weakness and risk appetite. Conflicting press accounts of near-term rate-hike pricing are not reconciled by an exact swaps snapshot here; no numerical October hike probability is asserted.

**Copper evidence correction:** [Bloomberg Línea’s 17 October report](https://www.bloomberglinea.com/latinoamerica/chile/los-trabajadores-de-antofagasta-pondran-fin-a-la-huelga-lo-que-aliviara-las-tensiones-en-torno-al-cobre-en-chile/) confirms that Centinela workers accepted the wage offer, citing a union official. This report was available before the previous cutoff and closes our earlier verification gap. It reduces prospective disruption; it does not establish a measured jump in restored copper output. The preliminary agreement had already moved five probability points out of our bull case, so ratification is not automatically counted as another independent shock.

A genuinely new publication is the [RBA Kent interview](https://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2026/sp-ag-2026-10-18.html), published 18 October 00:00UTC but recorded 13 October. Its discussion of pandemic quantitative easing and balance-sheet runoff is retrospective, not a fresh policy decision. December one-ounce gold also supplied a genuine weekend price, discussed below. Most other exact futures observations remain Friday-dated.

No independently verified additional shipping disruption was established since the preceding cutoff. [Reuters’17 October tanker account](https://gcaptain.com/irans-guards-say-two-tankers-hit-mines-in-strait-of-hormuz/) expressly lacked independent confirmation; later republication is not a second incident. Incomplete primary incident-page retrieval establishes neither safety nor a closure. The global regime weights remain judgmental 42% persistent inflation/policy divergence,19% resilient normalization,18% renewed supply shock,18% growth break and 3% AI/liquidity disappointment.

## Canadian dollar: a feasible micro, but very little economic cushion

The new expression is **March MCDH27**,10,000 Canadian dollars per micro, with a 12 February exit. [CME’s FX guide](https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/fx/fx-product-guide) establishes the multiplier; its [micro-CAD calendar](https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/fx/g10/e-micro-canadian-dollar-us-dollar/calendar) lists 16 March last trade and 17 March delivery. The study avoids holding a December contract beyond expiry.

No exact March quote was obtained. The permitted proxy is the **16 October ECB** cross:1.1253 USD and 1.5935 CAD per euro, giving **0.70618136 US dollars per Canadian dollar**, equivalently **1.41606683 CAD per USD**. In the table below, the conventional market label USD/CAD means CAD per US dollar. This is a spot-plus-carry valuation, not an observed March futures price. [ECB reference rates](https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/euro_reference_exchange_rates/html/index.en.html).

Assume total negative carry of 0.65% of USD notional, or$45.90 per micro, approximately a 2% annualized differential over 117 days. Add$9 friction: modeled$7 commission and two$1 adverse ticks. Neither carry nor commission is a verified broker quote. Carry would not be deducted again from a futures price already embedding the rate differential.

|12 February scenario|USD/CAD endpoint|Judgmental weight|Net one-micro long payoff|
|---|---:|---:|---:|
|Export-income support and policy convergence|1.34|25%|+$345.97|
|Modest convergence with trade drag|1.39|35%|+$77.53|
|US rate advantage dominates|1.44|25%|−$172.27|
|Oil reversal and/or global risk aversion|1.50|15%|−$450.05|

Expected value is only **+$3.05**. Transfer five probability points from the best to worst outcome and double friction: **−$45.75**. Also add 0.01 to every terminal USD/CAD level, weakening CAD: **−$96.15**. Reducing assumed carry to 0.40% improves un-stressed EV to$20.71, but basic stress remains−$28.09. Reversing into a short produces−$21.05 after positive assumed carry and costs: this is not a directional recommendation in disguise.

At an economically meaningful USD/CAD1.47 invalidation, one micro risks$378.77 including the 1.25 buffer, carry and costs; a 1.53 gap gives$712.23. Three micros risk$1,136.30, with$2,136.70 gap exposure, comfortably feasible. One 100,000-CAD standard with$32 friction instead risks$3,729.67 and$7,064.34 in the gap case—too much for an ordinary starter and the thesis scenario ceiling.

**Wait for Monday’s inflation breadth and business pricing/demand evidence to improve the distribution, or a price that pays more for these risks.** This is an economic rejection, not a missing-quote veto. A CAD long is also not a dependable hedge for the held Nasdaq position: risk aversion can weaken both. After Monday’s releases, revise or demote the study rather than retaining an indefinite generic watch.

## Actual simulated book: two holdings, unchanged accounting date

|Position|Original assumed entry and basis|Latest exact observation|Decision / planned exit|
|---|---|---|---|
|6 MZLH27 soybean-oil micros long|67.22¢/lb,16 October; same-month standard ZLH27 reference 67.20 plus adverse 0.02 tick|67.42,16 October 18:19:40UTC|Hold; stop 64.56; exit 12 February before 19 February micro termination|
|4 NNQZ26 Nasdaq E-nanos long|29640.50,16 October; exact 29640 plus adverse 0.50 tick|29392,16 October 20:59:51UTC|Hold; stop 28000; exit 20 November before 18 December termination|

Fresh retrieval of both held contracts returned those same Friday observation times. **No new fill or valuation event occurred.** Portfolio revision 99 remains valued **17 October 22:15:01UTC**: NAV$1,003,415.68; cash$1,003,542.48; open gross P&L−$126.80; cumulative closed net P&L+$3,577.48 across 13 completed positions. Oil’s open gross mark is+$72; Nasdaq’s is−$198.80. The$35 open entry commissions are already deducted from cash.

The one-contract micro-WTI short was closed in the **previous** edition at assumed 99.08, using 16 October 20:59:59 exact 99.07 plus a tick. Its−$9 net result remains history, not a new trade or rewritten performance. No real order or observed exchange execution is claimed.

Recorded open buffered risk remains$2,915.10, about 0.291%NAV; gross exposure$47,784.80; conservative paper margin reserves$21,000. These reserves are assumptions, not broker initial-margin facts. Selected initial gap scenarios total$6,915.10 and are not maximum losses. Holdings can share inflation/liquidity risk despite different tickers.

### Nasdaq: maintain exposure; do not confuse positive arithmetic with an add decision

Four E-nanos have$0.80 combined exposure per index point. For 20 November, retain endpoints 31650/30500/29600/28000 and weights 20/35/25/20%. From 29392, remaining net outcomes after$14.40 exit friction are **+$1,792 /+$872 /+$152 /−$1,128**; forward EV **+$476**.

Five probability points best-to-worst plus doubled exit costs leave$315.60. Reduce every endpoint 100 points: **+$235.60**. A further hypothetical 5% chance of a 28000 stop before an eventual 30500 recovery subtracts$100, leaving$135.60. This is path sensitivity, not evidence that a stop or recovery actually happened; endpoint models otherwise omit path-dependent exits.

Four additional contracts at nearest 29392 with$28.80 full costs still yield EV$461.60 and$206.80 after the probability/cost/100-point stresses. **No add is therefore a conviction and allocation judgment, not failed sizing or arithmetic.** Existing exposure captures the recovery case; new evidence of sustainable earnings or improved financing would justify reconsidering size.

The retained [16 October Anthropic lease report](https://www.reuters.com/legal/litigation/anthropic-signs-lease-first-canadian-data-center-2026-10-16/) challenges wholesale cancellation of AI investment, but proves neither cheaper financing nor immediate index profits. Tuesday Netflix results test consumer pricing and cash-flow resilience, not AI-project financing directly. Fundamental cash-flow impairment or the stated price invalidation would challenge Hold. A broad S&P long would largely overlap this exposure.

### Soybean oil: supply support survives, but not with room to add

For 12 February, retain 70.50/68.00/64.56¢ endpoints and 40/35/25% weights. Six micros at$60 per cent/lb each, marked 67.42, have remaining net outcomes **+$1,080.60 /+$180.60 /−$1,057.80**, after$28.20 exit friction; EV **+$231**. Basic probability/cost stress leaves$95.88; another 0.25¢ off every target leaves only **+$5.88**.

Six new contracts at the permitted nearest 67.42, not an adverse ask, have$56.40 full costs: outcomes+$1,052.40/+$152.40/−$1,086; EV$202.80. The same combined stress gives **−$50.52**. Thus Hold/no-add survives the lenient reference convention.

The mechanism remains tight reported oil availability and competing vegetable-oil supply, not an assumption that weak crush proves strong consumption. [USDA’s 14 October Oil Crops Outlook](https://www.ers.usda.gov/media/29748/ocs-26j.pdf?v=41680) supplies older supportive biofuel-use evidence, while imports and canola substitution are important counterweights. [15 October NOPA reporting](https://www.admis.com/ag-market-view-for-oct-15-2026/) and [9 October WASDE](https://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/wasde1026.pdf) remain dated context, not weekend releases. Improved competing supply or deteriorating demand would weaken the thesis. Monday harvest information is useful context, not a substitute for oil-specific consumption.

## Commodities: distinguish a better expression from a good trade

“Basic stress” below means five percentage points transferred from the trade’s best to worst scenario and doubled full costs. All probabilities and targets are ATG judgments. February targets apply to planned February exits, not to December contracts held through expiry.

|Prospective expression / exit|Endpoints and weights|Net outcomes after costs|EV / basic stress / further sensitivity|
|---|---|---|---|
|5 MZCH27 corn long at 486¢;12 Feb|550/480/450;35/40/25%|+$1540/−$210/−$960; total$60 friction|+$215 /+$30;−1¢ all targets→+$5;−1.5¢→−$7.50|
|1 MHGH27 copper long at 6.6685;12 Feb|7.60/7.00/5.80;20/50/30%|+$2319.25/+$819.25/−$2180.75;$9.50|+$219.25 /−$15.25;−$0.02 all targets→−$65.25|
|1 MCLZ26 WTI short at 99.07;12 Nov|110/98/84/75;35/35/25/5%|−$1102/+$98/+$1498/+$2398;$9|+$143 /−$41;+$1 all targets→−$141|
|1 MNGZ26-equivalent gas long at standard 3.374 proxy;12 Nov|4.50/3.65/2.90/2.50;15/40/35/10%|+$1117/+$267/−$483/−$883;$9|+$17 /−$92;−$0.10 all targets→−$192|
|**2 MNGH27 March gas longs at standard 2.649 proxy;12 Feb**|**4.00/2.90/2.45/2.00;15/40/35/10%**|**+$2684/+$484/−$416/−$1316;$18**|**+$319 /+$101;−$0.10 all targets→−$99**|

**Corn:** the price is more attractive than the larger harvest narrative alone suggests, but favorable shipment absorption is still required. Monday export inspections distinguish actual movement from sales commitments. Five micros fit valid 450¢ stops, yet a 1.5¢ terminal-model adjustment eliminates the stressed edge. Wait for improved absorption or better compensation; the same-distribution short EV is−$335. [October WASDE](https://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/wasde1026.pdf).

**Copper:** ratification is now established, while the March premium to December remains$0.1065/lb. Deferred scarcity is already partly priced. Keep the preliminary-deal-adjusted 20/50/30 distribution; a further two-point bull-to-base sensitivity lowers EV to$189.25, basic stress to−$45.25 and the extra two-cent target stress to−$95.25. Wait for Monday China activity and subsequent demand/inventory confirmation. Reduced strike risk does not automatically make a short attractive; concentrate-processing tightness is not itself cathode consumption.

**WTI:** remain flat. At 99.07 the new short’s positive average is not robust to modest tail-weight changes. The opposite long has−$161 EV. Standard December 99.04 versus March 93.15 retains$5.89 backwardation: prompt supply still commands a premium, so immediate normalization is not a free bet. The exact micro December/March last spread is 5.97, with nonsynchronous timestamps; its retained short-spread study has+$79 EV, only+$16 basic stress and−$84 after a further$1 spread shift. No replacement package is authorized.

**Gas:** March is genuinely a better horizon match, not the December weather tree copied forward. Its lower price removes part of the front-winter premium and allows a February exit. Nevertheless, [EIA’s 6 October outlook](https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/natgas.php) projects production expansion alongside LNG demand, and [NOAA’s 15 October winter outlook](https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/el-nino-looms-large-over-us-winter-outlook) favors warmer northern/eastern conditions. Annual cash-price forecasts are not March futures targets.

The [15 October EIA storage release](https://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngs.html), for 9 October, shows 3567Bcf nationally,45Bcf above the five-year average. South Central is 35Bcf below average; its salt storage is 43Bcf below. National abundance is therefore not uniform regional abundance, supporting retention of a cold-weather tail. This is not proof of an imminent Henry Hub squeeze. The 17 October CPC forecast is carried, not downgraded again because it was reread.

March’s two-micro position fits risk but loses$99 under a small additional target adjustment. **Wait for stronger storage/production tightening, a material weather revision or better price compensation.** Same-distribution March short EV is−$355; December short EV−$35. Smaller size and a suitable maturity remove implementation objections, not economic uncertainty. CME [micro-gas specifications](https://www.cmegroup.com/articles/faqs/micro-henry-hub-natural-gas-futures-and-options-frequently-asked-questions.html) establish 1000MMBtu, financial settlement and expiry one business day before standard NG. Planned 12 February exit precedes March delivery-month exposure; verify the exact calendar before activating a plan.

## Rates, equities, metals and relative-value board

The daily challenger scan covers liquid rates, FX, equity indexes, energy, metals and agriculture. All 16 pre-existing board ideas were reviewed; CAD is a new seventeenth watch. No old pending condition is silently treated as triggered.

|Expression / date|Current reference and model|Decision and competing evidence|
|---|---|---|
|MESZ26 long;20 Nov|7703;8100/7900/7650/7350 at 20/30/30/20%;$5/point,$9.50 costs; net+$1975.50/+$975.50/−$274.50/−$1774.50|Wait for earnings resilience or better value. EV$250.50,basic$53.50,targets−20→−$46.50; overlaps held Nasdaq|
|SR3H27 short;12 Feb|95.53;95.85/95.60/95.35/94.85 at 20/30/30/20%;$2500/point,$32 costs; net−$832/−$207/+$418/+$1668|Wait for stronger policy compensation. EV$230.50,basic$73.50,targets+0.03→−$1.50. Long reversal−$294.50|
|ZNZ26 short;20 Nov|105.625;107.75/105.75/104/102 at 25/35/25/15%;$1000/point,$32 costs; net−$2157/−$157/+$1593/+$3593|Avoid standard size: EV$343,basic$23.50,targets+1/32→−$7.75; gap exceeds thesis scenario cap|
|3 M6EZ26 euro shorts;20 Nov|ECB spot 1.1253 proxy,not exact futures;1.07/1.11/1.135/1.16 at 20/35/25/20%;€37500,$66 costs,zero basis assumption|Wait for stronger divergence or value. EV$198.38,basic−$36.38; forward-basis uncertainty is disclosed|
|MJYH27 yen long;12 Feb|ECB USD/JPY158.0201 proxy;145/152/158/166 at 20/30/30/20%;¥1.25m,$87.01 assumed carry,$19.50 friction|Wait. Net+$603.79/+$206.78/−$105.51/−$486.78;EV$53.78,basic−$20.24,each endpoint 1yen weaker→−$71.43|
|March wheat/corn long spread;12 Feb|ZWH27−ZCH27=188.25¢;230/195/150 at 20/45/35%;$50/cent,$64 costs|Avoid. Net+$2023.50/+$273.50/−$1976.50;EV−$164. Wheat’s story does not justify its relative premium|
|March oil-long/meal-short small package;12 Feb|Nearest standards:60×67.44−10×352.7=$519.40;retained weighted terminal$488.58,$20.40 costs|Avoid,EV−$51.22. Existing outright oil is simpler; no assumed synchronized micro execution|
|March diesel/crude one-tenth study;10 Feb|HOH4.4003×42−CLH93.15=$91.6626/bbl;121/99.2/79.6/61/49.6 at 25/35/25/5/10%;$100/unit,$40 costs|Avoid. Nearest-referenceEV$81.74, basic−$315.26; base diesel−$0.20/gal additionally→−$609.26; gap exceeds thesis ceiling|

SOFR March 95.53 and December 95.78 imply simple rate quotations 4.47% and 4.22% for different accrual periods—not identical spot-policy forecasts. Canada's warning does not independently raise US hiking probabilities. Yen’s 1.1% carry assumption belongs to the February horizon; March removes a December roll, with planned exit before 15 March last trade/17 March delivery. [CME FX calendars and guide](https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/fx/fx-product-guide).

The euro/sterling relative package remains Avoid under the retained joint model: approximately−$21.64 after$69.75 friction and$140.61 carry. INR remains context-only: energy-import pressure matters, but no new contract valuation or policy evidence supports entry. The retired March S&P setup stays retired; an uncalibrated relative-equity hedge is not preferable to the held simple E-nano.

### Weekend gold: price discovery is real, but maturity still matters

Exact **December 1OZ4180.00 at 18 October 04:05:17UTC** is$4 above the prior edition’s 4176 print. April 1OZ returned 4250 marked close **without a timestamp**, with indicative 4243.50/4261 bid/ask. Do not relabel that close as a fresh Sunday observation.

The February target tree 4600/4320/3920 at 25/40/35% has mean 4250. At April ask 4261, one-ounce long outcomes after$7.50 costs are+$331.50/+$51.50/−$348.50; EV−$18.50, basic stress−$60. At bid 4243.50, short outcomes−$364/−$84/+$316; EV−$14, basic−$55.50. Timestamped same-month MGCJ27 Friday 4258.2 is an acceptable compatible reference: one-ounce longEV−$15.70, short+$0.70, short basic stress−$40.80. Missing precision is not the economic reason to wait.

Three one-ounce longs at 4261 risk$1301.25 to 3920; three shorts at 4243.50 risk$1359.38 to 4600. Granularity works. December ends 25 November, February ends 27 January and April ends 29 March; only April covers the 12 February no-roll study. [CME one-ounce FAQ](https://www.cmegroup.com/articles/faqs/faq-1-oz-gold-futures.html). Wait for materially improved value or real-rate/demand evidence, not a cheaper but unsuitable maturity.

### Positioning remains dated context

The latest reviewed CFTC positioning is **13 October**, not a weekend trade signal: soybean-oil managed-money net length 87972, down 5546; copper 61058, down 76; Nasdaq asset managers net long 76402 and leveraged funds net short 21891, the latter less short by 4848. These affect crowding and squeeze vulnerability, not physical consumption or guaranteed price direction. [Agriculture](https://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/ag_sf.htm), [metals](https://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/other_lf.htm), [financial futures](https://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/financial_lf.htm). No unobserved weekend positioning change is inferred.

## Whole-contract risk before ranking

Current NAV implies ordinary 0.10–0.25% starter risk around$1003–$2509 and a 0.50% thesis ceiling near$5017. Numbers below use stop distance×real multiplier×1.25 plus full assumed costs; FX rows also include disclosed carry. Gap scenarios are not maximum-loss bounds.

|One small contract|Stop / adverse gap|Buffered risk / gap|
|---|---|---:|
|MZLH27 long at 67.42|64.56 /60¢|$223.90 /$565.90|
|NNQZ26 long at 29392|28000 /27000|$355.20 /$605.20|
|MZCH27 corn long at 486|450 /400¢|$237 /$549.50|
|MHGH27 copper long at 6.6685|6.35 /5.80|$1004.81 /$2723.56|
|MCLZ26 short at 99.07|110 /130|$1375.25 /$3875.25|
|MNGH27 long at 2.649 proxy|2.00 /1.50|$820.25 /$1445.25|
|SR3H27 short at 95.53|95.85 /96.25|$1032 /$2282|
|MCDH27 long,spot-plus-carry|USD/CAD1.47 /1.53|$378.77 /$712.23|
|MJYH27 long,spot-plus-carry|USD/JPY166 /172|$581.85 /$910.20|
|ZNZ26 standard short 105.625|107.75 /110|$2688.25 /$5500.75|

Five corn micros risk$1185; two March gas micros$1640.50; three CAD micros$1136.30. These fit before ranking. Existing same-thesis lots must also count toward limits; positive expected value does not automatically authorize an addition. Aggregate 4%, common-theme 2%, gross 3×NAV, margin 35%, eight-lot and 10% drawdown limits remain unchanged. No stop has been tightened merely to manufacture feasible size.

## Next 72 hours: through 21 October 04:06UTC

|Event|UTC time|Decision relevance|
|---|---|---|
|CME equity reopening|18 Oct 22:00|Proceed with existing small holdings; observe actual response, no assumed gap or stop|
|RBA Kent fireside chat|18 Oct 23:05|Funding context; distinct from the newly published prerecorded interview|
|China GDP/activity|19 Oct 02:00|Copper needs real demand support; re-underwrite rather than buy labor headlines|
|Canada CPI|19 Oct usual 12:30|Core breadth versus fuel-only inflation; new CAD entry remains unapproved|
|USDA export inspections|19 Oct usual 15:00|Corn needs shipment absorption|
|BoC business/consumer surveys|19 Oct 15:30|Pricing, demand and expectations test the CAD distribution|
|USDA Crop Progress|19 Oct 20:00|Harvest pressure; not direct soybean-oil consumption|
|US housing starts/permits|20 Oct 12:30|Financing sensitivity and demand|
|BoE Megan Greene|20 Oct 17:00|UK policy divergence|
|Netflix results / interview|20 Oct 20:01 /20:45|Consumer pricing, margins and outlook; no assumption that one result validates all Nasdaq|
|RBA Andrew Hauser|20 Oct 22:30|Newly enters the window;21 Oct 09:30AEDT|

Sources: [CME hours](https://www.cmegroup.com/articles/faqs/faq-e-nano-equity-index-futures.html), [RBA calendar](https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/calendar/), [China NBS](https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html), [Statistics Canada CPI](https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/subjects-start/prices_and_price_indexes/consumer_price_indexes), [USDA inspections](https://www.ams.usda.gov/market-news/weekly-export-grain-inspection), [BoC survey advisory](https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/10/the-bank-of-canada-releases-the-third-quarter-issues-of-the-business-outlook-survey-and-the-canadian-survey-of-consumer-expectations/), [USDA calendar](https://data.nass.usda.gov/Publications/Calendar/reports_by_date.php?js=1&month=10&view=l&year=2026), [Census](https://www.census.gov/economic-indicators/calendar-listview-2026.html), [BoE](https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/events/upcoming-events), [Netflix official announcement](https://ir.netflix.net/investor-news-and-events/financial-releases/press-release-details/2026/Netflix-to-Announce-Third-Quarter-2026-Financial-Results/default.aspx).

Scheduled times can change; usual release clocks are labeled. Centinela ratification is resolved, not a future event. RBA minutes were released 13 October, not 20 October. Next EIA gas storage 22 October lies outside this window. Hold through these events is intentional at current size; no universal blackout is applied. New watches receive the Sunday evening review and specified Monday evidence, not indefinite extensions.

## Exact reference ledger

Prices below were supplied by the connected Interactive Brokers market-data service. Observation clocks—not retrieval time—determine freshness. Held-contract checks returned unchanged Friday clocks; other Friday rows are carried. They are not synchronized spread quotes. After-session bid/ask indications are not guaranteed executable. ECB FX proxies and undated April one-ounce gold are separately identified above.

|Contract|Price|Actual observation UTC|Units|
|---|---:|---|---|
|MZLH27|67.42|2026-10-16 18:19:40Z|cents per pound|
|ZLH27|67.44|2026-10-16 18:19:40Z|cents per pound|
|SR3H27|95.53|2026-10-16 20:59:38Z|index points|
|SR3Z26|95.78|2026-10-16 20:59:59Z|index points|
|ZMH27|352.7|2026-10-16 18:19:52Z|USD per short ton|
|MGCJ27|4258.2|2026-10-16 20:40:33Z|USD per ounce|
|1OZZ26|4180|2026-10-18 04:05:17Z|USD per ounce|
|HOH27|4.4003|2026-10-16 20:59:46Z|USD per gallon|
|CLH27|93.15|2026-10-16 20:59:30Z|USD per barrel|
|NGZ26|3.374|2026-10-16 20:59:58Z|USD per MMBtu|
|NGH27|2.649|2026-10-16 20:59:57Z|USD per MMBtu|
|MZCH27|486|2026-10-16 18:06:40Z|cents per bushel|
|ZCH27|486.25|2026-10-16 18:19:59Z|cents per bushel|
|ZNZ26|105.625|2026-10-16 20:59:59Z|index points|
|MHGH27|6.6685|2026-10-16 20:57:00Z|USD per pound|
|MHGZ26|6.562|2026-10-16 20:59:02Z|USD per pound|
|MESZ26|7703|2026-10-16 20:59:59Z|index points|
|ZWH27|674.5|2026-10-16 18:19:55Z|cents per bushel|
|NNQZ26|29392|2026-10-16 20:59:51Z|index points|
|MNQZ26|29392.5|2026-10-16 20:59:59Z|index points|
|MCLZ26|99.07|2026-10-16 20:59:59Z|USD per barrel|

Scenario weights, targets, costs, carry and margin reserves are ATG assumptions, not measured probabilities or exchange promises. Net expected value is not a forecast of realized profit. Existing fills remain explicitly assumed and dated; no real trades, new fills, backdating or capital reset occurred.

*Research and simulation only. Futures losses can exceed margin; stops do not cap gaps.*