# A better price can turn a watch into a small trade

Research cutoff: **October 15, 2026, 00:12 Toronto / 04:12 UTC**. This review covers developments since October 14 at 22:12 UTC and the Asian session. The four-month research horizon remains **February 13, 2027**; shorter contract-specific exits are explicit.

## Decisions and actual implementation

**Enter one March micro-copper and one December micro-Nasdaq starter. Hold one March SOFR and one April micro-gold; add zero to those holdings.** Lower entry prices—not higher forecast targets or invented technical confirmation—change the first two decisions.

The new simulated entries were assumed at **04:16:00 UTC**:

| Contract | Assumed paper fill | Exact source last and observation time | Stop / hard target | Intended exit |
|---|---:|---|---|---|
| +1 MHGH27, 2,500 lb copper | $6.6665/lb | $6.6660, Oct 15 04:08:00 UTC, plus one adverse tick | 6.35 / 7.60 | Feb 12, 2027 |
| +1 MNQZ26, $2 per index point | 29,838.75 | 29,838.50, Oct 15 04:08:03 UTC, plus one adverse tick | 29,600 / 31,650 | Nov 20, 2026 |

These are **assumed transactions now using dated references**, not observed exchange executions. Each entry also incurs $3.50 commission. No historical reclaim, stop touch or target path is inferred. Both positions start at one whole micro, intentionally below or near the usual 0.10% starter lower guideline because their gap risk matters more than filling a budget.

**Avoid the old Treasury-short setup.** December Treasury futures are above its previously specified invalidation; a stop below a new short entry cannot define a loss limit. There was no open Treasury position, so no phantom stop loss is booked.

Oil, diesel, gas and oil/meal remain finite research watches. The broad S&P long is an economically viable but unselected alternative to Nasdaq—not a negative-EV rejection. Corn and wheat/corn remain Avoid.

## Overnight evidence: distinguish news from price transmission

The Asian selloff extends the reaction to yesterday’s inflation and AI-financing concerns. It is not itself a new measurement of AI orders. The dollar and Treasury yields also retreated, opposing the simple claim that hot CPI must produce uninterrupted yield increases. Reuters reported the euro around **1.1187** and the dollar index around **102.06** early October 15. Nominal yields do not establish a synchronized change in real yields. [Reuters currency report](https://wealthinsights.metrobank.com.ph/news/forex-dollar-retreats-from-18-month-high-despite-hot-cpi-as-fed-officials-temper-hike-bets)

Regional evidence is mixed: newly released Australian employment data were weaker, while Japanese core machinery orders improved. These releases measure September and August respectively, not current October conditions. They argue against treating Asia as one uniform demand collapse. [ABS September labor force](https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/labour/employment-and-unemployment/labour-force-australia/sep-2026) · [Japan August machinery orders](https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/stat/juchu/2026/2608juchu-e.html)

The scheduled **02:55 UTC Bowman event** concerned supervision. Earlier “wait and see” policy remarks and Daly’s patience already belonged to the prior information set. They are not counted again as fresh overnight easing signals. [Fed calendar](https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/2026-october.htm)

Retain broad analyst regime weights **39/22/18/18/3%** for persistent inflation, normalization, supply shock, growth break and AI/liquidity disappointment. These are judgments, not market-implied probabilities. Preserve the instrument-specific trees below; the material change in the two entries is price.

## Quote discipline and current sessions

All timestamped observations below came from native-exchange [IBKR market data](https://www.interactivebrokers.com/). Times are October 15 UTC unless stated otherwise. Bid/ask indications were retrieved during this review but have no independent exchange clock. They are not synchronized spread executions.

| Contract | Exact last | Observation UTC | Retrieved bid / ask |
|---|---:|---|---|
| MGCJ27, April micro gold | 4,233.40 | 04:08:34 | 4,232.60 / 4,232.90 |
| MHGH27, March micro copper | 6.6660 | 04:08:00 | 6.6635 / 6.6655 |
| MHGZ26, December micro copper | 6.5580 | 04:09:17 | 6.5570 / 6.5580 |
| MNQZ26, December micro Nasdaq | 29,838.50 | 04:08:03 | 29,838.50 / 29,839.00 |
| MESZ26, December micro S&P | 7,731.25 | 04:08:14 | 7,731.00 / 7,731.25 |
| ZNZ26, December Treasury | 105.453125 | 04:09:25 | 105.453125 / 105.468750 |
| CLZ26, December standard WTI | 92.83 | 04:09:56 | 92.82 / 92.84 |
| CLH27, March standard WTI | 89.31 | 04:06:04 | 89.28 / 89.30 |
| NGZ26, December standard gas | 3.591 | 04:09:11 | 3.588 / 3.590 |
| NGH27, March standard gas | 2.802 | 03:45:33 | 2.801 / 2.804 |
| ZCH27, March corn | 492.50 cents/bu | 04:09:17 | 492.25 / 492.75 |
| ZMH27, March meal | $359.10/short ton | 04:09:05 | 359.00 / 359.10 |

SOFR returned undated close fields of **95.445 March / 95.715 December**, not timestamped overnight trades. Keep the latest dated exact references **95.435 / 95.710 at October 14 22:01:37 UTC**. Likewise, undated ULSD, wheat and soybean-oil close fields are not assigned invented settlement dates. Their earlier observations remain visibly dated.

The newer standard WTI observations supersede older micro references for current research, under an explicit same-month, same-unit, zero-basis proxy assumption. They are **not observed Micro WTI prices**. This is a permissible paper pricing basis; it is not the reason for waiting on oil.

## Copper: unchanged cautious outlook, a cheaper entry

**Enter one MHGH27.** Newly verified London data for **October 14** show stocks of **228,000 tonnes**, down **1,650 tonnes** from October 13. Cash copper of $14,751 versus three-month $14,635 implies a **$116/t premium**, almost unchanged from $115.50. This is new-to-review evidence of continued prompt tightness, not an October 15 inventory release or proof of a consumption boom. [Westmetall LME compilation](https://www.westmetall.com/en/markdaten.php?action=table&field=LME_Cu_cash)

The inventory test requested in the prior report is now completed. Escondida’s ratified agreement still removes an imminent strike risk; avoiding a threatened disruption is not recovered lost output. Retain the already reduced **25/45/30%** weights at **7.60/7.00/5.80** on February 12. The favorable case combines persistent available-metal scarcity and resilient consumption; base allows tightness without a demand boom; adverse represents replenishment and weaker demand. [Ratification reporting, October 14](https://www.emol.com/noticias/Economia/2026/10/14/1214144/no-hay-huelga-escondida-sindicato.html)

At the exact **6.6660 reference**, one 2,500-lb micro has net branches **+$2,325.50 / +$825.50 / −$2,174.50**, including **$9.50 full friction**. Central EV is **+$300.50**, versus +$123 at the prior 6.737 indication. One-unit buffered risk to the unchanged **6.35 stop** is **$997.00**. A standard 25,000-lb contract is ten times larger and does not fit this starter.

Sensitivity is deliberately demanding, but not presented as certainty:

| Copper sensitivity | Net EV |
|---|---:|
| Central 25/45/30 distribution | +$300.50 |
| Five favorable points moved to adverse | +$75.50 |
| That probability change plus base 7.00 → 6.95 | +$19.25 |
| Same combined stress plus doubled friction | +$9.75 |
| Five-point change plus base 7.00 → 6.90 | −$37.00 |
| Ten favorable points moved to adverse | −$149.50 |

The margin of safety is modest. It supports **one**, not two, micros. The 5.80 gap branch loses $2,174.50; buffered gap risk is about **$2,715.75**, and two would exceed the approximate $5,012 thesis ceiling. The ordinary stop is not a guarantee.

March exceeds December by about **10.80 cents/lb** using unsynchronized lasts. This deferred premium can erode if cash tightness fades; London backwardation is not free carry on COMEX. The variant view is that prompt scarcity survives long enough to support the deferred price, while the lower entry compensates for the missing demand confirmation. A collapsing cash premium, material ex-U.S. inventory rebuilding or deteriorating consumption can invalidate this before the price stop.

Review physical evidence on **October 16**; do not perpetually defer merely because another inventory release is coming. Exit February 12 before the **February 24** last-trade date. Micro copper is financially settled; no delivery or automatic roll is assumed. [CME specifications and expiry rule](https://www.cmegroup.com/articles/faqs/micro-copper-futures-faq.html)

## Nasdaq: the same forecast can justify a different decision

**Enter one MNQZ26.** The market has fallen from the prior 30,129 area to approximately 29,839. This changes the price paid for the earnings and financing distribution; it does not establish that AI demand has collapsed or recovered.

Keep November 20 endpoints **31,650 / 30,500 / 29,600 / 28,000**, weights **30/30/30/10%**. The branches represent resilient earnings and financing, partial recovery, persistent margin/rate pressure reaching the tactical invalidation, and a severe financing/growth gap. The four-month macro horizon does not turn these into February endpoints for a December contract.

Using the conservative **29,839 ask**, $2 multiplier and **$8 full friction**, net branches are **+$3,614 / +$1,314 / −$486 / −$3,686**. EV is **+$964**, ordinary buffered risk **$605.50**. Ten favorable-to-gap points still leave **+$234**, or **+$226** with doubled costs. Calling this unchanged “fragile under a ten-point stress” would be incorrect.

The existing **29,600 tactical invalidation** is retained, not tightened to manufacture size. It is not newly verified technical support. TSMC’s **06:00 UTC** earnings conference is a real distribution risk: reducing favorable/base endpoints by 500 points to 31,150/30,000 and changing weights to **20/30/30/20%** produces **−$266 EV**. That is a conditional demand/financing shock, not a forecast that guidance will disappoint. [TSMC calendar](https://investor.tsmc.com/english/financial-calendar)

One unit is deliberately below the normal starter band. Its buffered 28,000 gap loss is **$4,605.50**; two would double that. Copper adds related growth/AI sensitivity, so no diversification credit is taken and no extra unit is added merely to use capacity. Proceed with one, review guidance, and exit on fundamental deterioration even before the stop when warranted.

The hard target is **31,650**; **30,500 is a discretionary review**, not a conflicting automatic exit. Exit November 20 before December 18 last trade. The $12,000 paper margin reserve exceeds twice the retrieved generic $4,762 maintenance reference; it is not a broker initial-margin quote. [CME multiplier](https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/equities/nasdaq/micro-e-mini-nasdaq-100.contractSpecs.html) · [Margin reference](https://www.ampfutures.com/trading-info/margins)

## Existing gold and SOFR: Hold is not permission to add

**Gold: Hold one MGCJ27 from 4,167.80; no add.** At the fresh 4,233.40 mark, the unchanged February outcomes **4,600/4,320/3,920**, weights **25/40/35%**, give mark-forward net branches **+$3,661.50 / +$861.50 / −$3,138.50**, with $4.50 remaining exit friction. EV is only **+$161.50**, down from +$565.50. Forward ordinary buffered risk is **$2,297**.

At the new 4,232.90 ask, full-cost EV is **+$162** and risk **$2,295.25**. A ten-point favorable-to-adverse transfer reduces EV by $680; cutting base and adverse endpoints by $100 reduces it by $750. No addition is justified. We retain the existing indivisible unit because the central forward value remains positive and no independent structural-demand or policy invalidation has been established—not because the entry price makes a loss unacceptable. Further distribution deterioration can justify Exit before 4,050.

Gold’s rebound accompanied a softer dollar; no fresh ETF inflow is asserted. September flow evidence remains dated. Keep **4,050 stop / 4,600 hard target / 4,320 review** and February 12 exit. April’s first position/notice dates are March 30/31 and last trade April 28; no roll is needed for this planned exit. [Reuters October 15 gold report](https://www.reuters.com/world/india/gold-rebounds-one-week-low-dollar-slips-2026-10-15/) · [WGC September commentary](https://www.gold.org/goldhub/research/gold-market-commentary-september-2026)

**SOFR: Hold one SR3H27 from 95.475; no add.** Keep **30/30/30/10%** at February 12 marks **95.85/95.60/95.35/94.85**. At the carried 95.435 mark, exit-cost-adjusted branches remain **+$1,021.50 / +$396.50 / −$228.50 / −$1,478.50**, EV **+$209**, forward buffered risk **$1,062.875**. Ten favorable-to-gap points make EV −$41. The prior 95.440 ask study—not a fresh quote—has +$180.50 full-cost EV.

The dated March/December prices imply funding rates of about **4.565%/4.290%**, a 27.5 bp difference. This is neither guaranteed carry nor a literal number of hikes. March SOFR references March 17–June 16 funding; our February 12 exit is a repricing trade before that quarter, with June 15 last trade. Persistent underlying inflation plus policy guidance validating much greater tightening invalidates the variant. [CME SOFR mechanics](https://www.cmegroup.com/education/articles-and-reports/understanding-sofr-futures)

Gold and SOFR can lose together under renewed tightening. Their combined mark-forward risk is approximately **$3,359.88**, distinct from accounting’s risk convention and without diversification credit.

## Energy: price is better, but the stock draw needs a mechanism

New reporting says U.S. officials are **considering** relief for previously sanctioned vessels carrying permitted cargoes. Applications, insurance and vessel suitability still matter. The UK’s contrary call for tighter shipping restrictions limits any assumption of coordinated relief. Neither headline establishes new insured cargoes or restored refinery output. [Reuters U.S. proposal](https://www.reuters.com/legal/government/us-considers-easing-sanctions-shadow-fleet-vessels-cut-freight-rates-official-2026-10-15/) · [Reuters UK position](https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/uk-finance-minister-calls-tighter-russian-shipping-sanctions-2026-10-15/)

Reuters separately corroborates the already reported roughly **11.1-million-barrel API draw**. It is not another draw, not an EIA observation and not proof of stronger consumption. The storm-period week ended October 9; the October 14 Gulf recovery report is later. Today's production recovery can coexist with last week's inventory loss. [Reuters oil report](https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-prices-fall-investors-weigh-supply-outlook-middle-east-tensions-2026-10-15/) · [API schedule](https://www.api.org/-/media/Files/Publications/WSB%20Schedule%20of%20Releases%202026.pdf) · [October 14 Gulf survey](https://www.bsee.gov/newsroom/latest-news/statements-and-releases/press-releases/mma-monitors-gulf-response-isaias8)

Retain the energy probabilities rather than shifting them merely because price fell. Same-month standard CL books supply explicit Micro WTI proxy studies, with 100-barrel multipliers:

| Expression; entry / stop; full cost | Exit; endpoints; weights | Net branches, USD | EV / buffered ordinary risk |
|---|---|---|---:|
| December long 92.84 / 84; $9 | Nov 12; 110/98/84/75; 30/35/25/10% | +1,707/+507/−893/−1,793 | +287 / 1,114 |
| March long 89.30 / 80; $12 | Feb 10; 110/94/80/65; 25/35/30/10% | +2,058/+458/−942/−2,442 | +148 / 1,174.50 |
| December short 92.82 / 96.50; $9 | Nov 12; 84/91/96.5/120; 25/35/25/15% | +873/+173/−377/−2,727 | −224.50 / 469 |
| March short 89.28 / 95; $12 | Feb 10; 78/87/95/120; 30/35/20/15% | +1,116/+216/−584/−3,084 | −169 / 727 |

**Avoid shorts. Wait on longs until the October 15 16:00 UTC EIA composition test.** December's lower price now leaves +$112 after five favorable-to-gap points, so this is not the same failed price test as yesterday. However, after that transfer a further $2 reduction in the base/ordinary-adverse endpoints removes $120 and turns EV to **−$8**. That is a plausible stock-composition/normalization sensitivity. We choose not to add this third new risk when its demand-versus-storm mechanism remains unresolved; it is not a blanket pre-event ban. March's same five-point transfer already leaves **−$77**.

The IEA’s depleted buffers and forecast later product recovery remain counterweights, not fresh overnight releases. WTI December–March book bounds of **$3.52–3.56/bbl** are unsynchronized and not guaranteed roll income. December Micro WTI last trades November 19, so the study exits November 12; March exits February 10 before February 19 micro expiry.

**Diesel: Wait.** Fresh HO fields lacked observation dates. Retain the 4.4217 ask indication retrieved during the prior evening review, without an independent exchange clock, for the March MHO proxy study: 4,200 gallons, 3.80 stop, $28 costs, 30/40/25/5% at 5.5/4.6/3.8/3 gives +$678.86 EV and **$3,291.925 ordinary risk**. One is already above the usual starter maximum; a $3 gap raises risk to $7,491.925. A smaller price near 4.27 requires re-underwriting, not an automatic order. Shipping relief does not itself create refinery capacity. [MHO specifications](https://www.cmegroup.com/content/dam/cmegroup/rulebook/NYMEX/4/434.pdf)

**Gas: Wait for today’s storage and seasonal forecast, then demote if unchanged.** At the December NG 3.590 ask proxy, one 1,000-MMBtu MNG with 2.90 stop and $9 costs has branches **+$901 / +$51 / −$699 / −$1,099**, weights **20/40/30/10%**, EV **−$119**, risk **$871.50**. Two fit but double negative EV. The existing near-term warmth downgrade is already in these weights; it is not a new overnight winter forecast. December–March book premium is **$0.784–0.789/MMBtu**. Exit any future approved December position by November 20 before November 25 expiry. [CPC outlook](https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/fxus06.html)

## Agriculture and other challengers

**Corn: Avoid.** At the new 492.25 standard bid, unchanged 35/40/25% outcomes 550/480/450, stop 535 and $32 costs give branches **−$2,919.50 / +$580.50 / +$2,080.50**, EV **−$269.50**, risk **$2,703.875**. Five 500-bushel micros at a conservative half-cent-valid **492.0 standard-price proxy** and $60 costs give **−$1,510 / +$240 / +$990**, EV **−$185**, risk **$1,403.75**. Smaller size solves granularity, not the negative economics. [CME micro agriculture](https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/agriculture/micro-ag-futures)

**Wheat/corn: Avoid.** No new dated wheat quote was verified. The October 14 midday paired spread of 189, stop 170, endpoints 230/195/150 at 20/45/35% and $64 costs retains **−$201.50 EV / $1,251.50 risk**. Mixing old wheat and new corn is not a current observed spread. CONAB and export demand can revise the relative balance; yesterday’s ERS reports did not constitute another WASDE shock.

**Oil/meal: Wait for NOPA at 16:00 UTC.** Prior paired metric 493.8 retains +$45.60 EV and $1,711.95 risk for three micro pairs. A disclosed mixed-time illustration—old oil 67.49 and new meal bid 359—gives metric **60×67.49−10×359=459.4**. Three pairs, $61.20 costs and 40/35/25% at 870/480/53.6 yield +$148.80 EV; a five-point favorable-to-adverse shift leaves +$26.34. A 0.50-cent oil repricing moves the three-pair outcome $90, more than that stressed cushion. This is not sufficient evidence to enter from an asynchronously improved number. Test oil stocks and crush together; strong crush produces both meal and oil. Demote if oil disappearance and economics do not improve. [NOPA calendar](https://www.nopa.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/NOPA-ONLY-Crush-Reporting-Release-Dates-2026-FINAL.pdf)

**S&P long: viable, unselected.** At 7,731.25, 7,650 stop, $5 multiplier and $9.50 costs, November 20 endpoints 8,100/7,900/7,650/7,350 with 30/30/30/10% give branches **+$1,834.25 / +$834.25 / −$415.75 / −$1,915.75**, EV **+$484.25**, risk **$517.3125**. Ten favorable-to-gap points leave +$109.25. Two fit ordinary sizing; we select one Nasdaq instead and avoid duplicating equity beta. Do not call this a failed payoff test.

**Nasdaq short: Avoid.** A lower sale price worsens the old short distribution while whole-unit risk remains large. Long and short are not interchangeable expressions of uncertainty.

**Treasury short: old setup invalid.** At 105.453125 the market has crossed the old 105.265625 stop. Its favorable-looking arithmetic is meaningless with a wrongly sided stop. No ad hoc widening. A new bearish thesis needs a new independently defensible invalidation after retail/PPI and policy communication.

**Euro short: Wait.** Reuters spot 1.1187 is not a December futures quote. A zero-basis study of three €12,500 micro-equivalents, stop 1.135, $66 costs, 30/35/25/10% endpoints 1.07/1.11/1.135/1.16 gives **+$1,760.25 / +$260.25 / −$677.25 / −$1,614.75**, EV **+$288.375**, risk **$830.0625**. Five favorable-to-gap points leave $119.625; a further 0.005 forward-basis shift costs $187.50, making **−$67.875**. Higher entry improves arithmetic, while dollar/yield retreat challenges the mechanism. Exact-price precision alone is not the veto.

INR remains context-only. Old March equity, soybean, silver and retired relative-value expressions are not revived. No new CFTC positioning print is claimed: October 6 positioning from the complete review remains dated context. The October 16 release will describe October 13, before CPI. This is the daily cross-asset challenger scan, not another monthly review.

## Next 72 hours

| UTC | Catalyst | Decision test |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 15 06:00 | TSMC earnings conference | AI orders, financing and capex; review MNQ, no automatic add |
| Oct 15, date verified | CONAB first 2026/27 grains outlook | New crop assumptions, not a duplicate WASDE |
| Oct 15 12:30 | U.S. PPI and retail sales | Cost pipeline versus spending composition and revisions |
| Oct 15 around 12:30 | CPC seasonal outlook | Official usual time; not a guarantee of minute-level availability |
| Oct 15 14:30 | EIA gas storage | Weather-adjusted balances and South Central storage |
| Oct 15 16:00 | EIA petroleum and NOPA | Storm-week crude components; crush and oil disappearance |
| Oct 16 03:30 | Warsh–Georgieva | This is Oct 15 23:30 Toronto, not daytime Oct 15 |
| Oct 16 12:30 | Import/export prices; delayed export sales | Cost transmission and agricultural demand |
| Oct 16 13:15 | Industrial production | Industrial demand |
| Oct 16 19:30 | CFTC positioning | October 13 snapshot, explicitly pre-CPI |

Sources: [TSMC](https://investor.tsmc.com/english/financial-calendar), [CONAB](https://www.gov.br/conab/pt-br/atuacao/informacoes-agropecuarias/safras/calendario-de-safras-e-prohort-2026), [BLS](https://www.bls.gov/schedule/2026/10_sched.htm), [Census](https://www.census.gov/retail/release_schedule.html), [CPC](https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/schedule.php), [EIA gas](https://ir.eia.gov/ngs/schedule.html), [EIA oil](https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/supply/weekly/schedule.php), [NOPA](https://www.nopa.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/NOPA-ONLY-Crush-Reporting-Release-Dates-2026-FINAL.pdf), [Fed](https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/2026-october.htm), [FAS](https://fas.usda.gov/report-release-announcement/weekly-export-sales-300), [CFTC](https://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ReleaseSchedule/index.htm).

## Actual simulated book, not hypothetical results

At **04:16:00 UTC**, cash is **$1,001,803.875**, open gross P&L **+$554.25**, and NAV **$1,002,358.125**. The four open positions are:

| Position | Assumed entry | Current reference | Open gross P&L |
|---|---:|---:|---:|
| +1 SR3H27 | 95.475 | 95.435, Oct 14 22:01:37 UTC | −$100 |
| +1 MGCJ27 | 4,167.80 | 4,233.40, Oct 15 04:08:34 UTC | +$656 |
| +1 MHGH27 | 6.6665 | 6.6660, Oct 15 04:08:00 UTC | −$1.25 |
| +1 MNQZ26 | 29,838.75 | 29,838.50, Oct 15 04:08:03 UTC | −$0.50 |

The new copper and Nasdaq ledger entry risks are **$997.3125 / $604.375**. Minor differences from research illustrations reflect the actual adverse-tick fill and cost convention. Copper's lifecycle net branches equal the reference study after recognizing the embedded entry tick; Nasdaq's actual lifecycle outcomes are $1 higher than the conservative ask-based study. Entry slippage is not charged twice.

Accounting open risk totals **$4,627.0625 (0.462% NAV)**: SOFR $1,191.375, gold $1,834, copper $997.3125, Nasdaq $604.375. Gold’s accounting risk increased with its mark despite no added contract; this is not the separately buffered forward-risk illustration. Modeled margin reserves total **$29,000**, gross exposure about **0.356× NAV**, and pending orders are zero. Copper and Nasdaq share a growth/AI theme; all four can be hurt by a tightening-and-growth shock.

Cumulative closed-trade net P&L remains **+$1,817.875 across seven closes**. No closed result, capital history or prior valuation is rewritten. No real orders were placed. Futures can lose more than margin; scenario probabilities, stops and illustrated gap losses do not cap every risk.