# No action; wait through EIA and FOMC

Research cutoff: Sep 16, 2026, 9:05 a.m. Toronto. Status: partial.

Gold and copper moved materially, but no monitored setup satisfied its complete entry and evidence gates. February WTI eased while remaining above entry; the 10:30 petroleum report is inside three hours. The simulated book stays cash-only.

## Market outlook
Four-month dominant-outcome scenario tree retained from the prior complete review.
Subjective analytical weights, not market-implied or measured probabilities; terminal prices are analyst scenario inputs. This morning monitor did not refresh or redate these probabilities.

## What changed
- **Gold moved above its entry ceiling:** GCG27 rose 1.27% to 4,424.10 after trading through the support zone; a post-event defended-support sequence is still absent.
- **Copper rebounded toward the setup zone:** HGH27 rose 1.03% to 6.6085, adverse to the short but still below the required 6.70–6.80 failed-rally band.
- **Deferred crude eased but remained expensive:** CLG27 fell 0.87% to 86.57 while February/March backwardation narrowed to 2.61; it remains above the 82–84 entry band.
- **Wheat/soy weakened:** The synchronized 2×ZWH27/ZSH27 ratio fell to 1.100130, below the 1.115 trigger and above the 1.08 invalidation.
- **Stronger U.S. nominal demand and prices:** August retail sales rose 1.2% and import prices 0.7%; this complicates a simple easing narrative ahead of FOMC.

## Trade theses

### Coffee replenishment short — Retain thesis; Wait for a fresh failed retest and verified certification growth
Bearish replenishment thesis remains conditional; do not chase.
**Contracts:** −1 KCH27
**Quote:** KCH27 273.15 US cents per pound at 2026-09-16T12:41:00Z. Delayed intraday exact-contract mark
**Change:** −1.90¢ / −0.69% from September 15 settlement 275.05¢. Exact-contract delayed comparison; not paper P&L or an executable fill.
**Entry:** Failed retest of 280–288¢, reference 285¢, after certified stocks rise
**Targets:** 255¢ then 240¢
**Stop:** 305¢ research invalidation; gaps can exceed it
**Invalidation:** Certification failures, net withdrawals, logistics disruption or adverse Brazil flowering/crop evidence.
**Counterargument:** Certified stocks remain exceptionally low and a weather squeeze can gap through the stop.
**Catalyst:** Daily certification/grading outcomes, Brazil exports and flowering weather.
**Roll:** FND February 18 and last trade March 18, 2027; no roll before January 13.
**Market evidence:** March/May backwardation narrowed to 2.75¢; Brazil export recovery conflicts with exceptionally low reported ICE stocks. Depth and exact-month positioning remain unavailable.
**Expected return:** Weekly model retained; the lower price consumed prospective short return while missing certification evidence tempers conviction.
**Data limitations:** Current depth, margins, complete costs and all thesis-specific evidence gates are not simultaneously verified.
[KCH27 delayed quote](https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/future/kch27)
[Coffee physical context](https://www.tradingview.com/news/barchart%3A3d9a7d999094b%3A0-coffee-prices-retreat-on-ideal-growing-weather-in-brazil-and-vietnam/)

### Deferred WTI scarcity — Retain regime-alert thesis; Wait for EIA and a qualifying $82–$84 pullback
Leading energy watch; wait for EIA and do not chase.
**Contracts:** +1 CLG27
**Quote:** CLG27 86.57 USD per barrel at 2026-09-16T12:53:00Z. Delayed intraday exact-contract mark
**Change:** −$0.76 / −0.87% from September 15 delayed close 87.33. Comparison preserves the accepted prior delayed close; vendor prior settlement differs.
**Entry:** $82–84, modeling reference $83
**Targets:** $104/bbl by January 13
**Stop:** $76/bbl research invalidation; gap risk remains
**Invalidation:** Sustained export/transit restoration with inventory rebuilding, or demand contraction outrunning lost supply.
**Counterargument:** High prices can destroy demand and the backward curve may correctly anticipate normalization.
**Catalyst:** Saudi repairs, actual exports, tanker flows and EIA inventories.
**Roll:** Last trade January 20; mandatory horizon exit by January 13, no planned roll.
**Market evidence:** February/March backwardation narrowed to $2.61 from $2.85; supply disruption remains unresolved and some tightness is already priced.
**Expected return:** Weekly model retained; lower price modestly improves valuation, but the catalyst gate and above-band price block entry.
**Data limitations:** Current depth, margins, complete costs and all thesis-specific evidence gates are not simultaneously verified.
[CLG27 delayed quote](https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/future/clg27)
[Saudi routing and inventory context](https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-falls-us-crude-inventories-rise-despite-saudi-supply-concerns-2026-09-16/)

### Copper tariff-premium fade — Retain conditional short; Wait for a failed $6.70–$6.80 rally and physical confirmation
Conditional short remains untriggered.
**Contracts:** −1 HGH27
**Quote:** HGH27 6.6085 USD per pound at 2026-09-16T12:47:00Z. Delayed intraday exact-contract mark
**Change:** +$0.0675 / +1.03% from September 15 settlement 6.5410. Delayed exact-contract comparison; no synchronized physical-market confirmation.
**Entry:** Failed retest of $6.70–6.80, reference $6.75
**Targets:** $5.90/lb
**Stop:** $7.10/lb
**Invalidation:** Enacted meaningful tariff or verified mine/refinery loss overwhelming redistribution.
**Counterargument:** Low Asian stocks and price-sensitive buying can absorb liquidation quickly.
**Catalyst:** U.S. tariff decision, China activity, physical premia and positioning.
**Roll:** March contract spans January 13; verify delivery calendar before eligibility.
**Market evidence:** Trend moved toward the setup zone; carry, cash basis, depth and exact-contract crowding changes remain unavailable.
**Expected return:** Weekly downside model retained; expected return could improve on a failed higher rally, but present confirmation weakened.
**Data limitations:** Current depth, margins, complete costs and all thesis-specific evidence gates are not simultaneously verified.
[HGH27 delayed quote](https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/future/hgh27)

### Gold defensive continuation — Retain conditional long; Wait for post-FOMC defended support and do not chase above $4,380
Closest macro watch, but no confirmed entry.
**Contracts:** +1 GCG27
**Quote:** GCG27 4424.10 USD per troy ounce at 2026-09-16T12:50:00Z. Delayed intraday exact-contract mark
**Change:** +$55.30 / +1.27% from September 15 settlement 4,368.80. Delayed exact-contract comparison; range evidence is not a retroactive fill.
**Entry:** Defended $4,300–4,380 zone
**Targets:** $4,800/oz
**Stop:** $4,100/oz
**Invalidation:** Durable ETF outflows with higher real yields/dollar and failed defensive demand.
**Counterargument:** Inflation-driven tightening can hurt gold even during geopolitical stress.
**Catalyst:** FOMC, real yields, dollar and verified ETF flows.
**Roll:** February spans January 13; verify first-notice controls before eligibility.
**Market evidence:** Session range included the entry zone, but post-event support, real-yield reaction, depth and crowding changes remain unverified.
**Expected return:** Weekly bullish model retained; the rally strengthened trend but consumed return above the entry ceiling.
**Data limitations:** Current depth, margins, complete costs and all thesis-specific evidence gates are not simultaneously verified.
[GCG27 delayed quote](https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/future/gcg27)
[FOMC calendar](https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/2026-september.htm)

### Japanese yen — Hold research thesis; no add above entry band; Wait through FOMC and BOJ
Retain reduced-prominence yen research; no add.
**Contracts:** Long CME December 2026 yen · 6JZ26
**Quote:** 6JZ26 0.006491 USD per JPY at 2026-09-16T12:52:00Z. Delayed intraday vendor mark normalized by dividing cents display by 100
**Change:** −0.000004 / −0.06% from September 15 settlement 0.006495. Vendor alias and unit normalization are diagnostic, not tick-accurate execution evidence.
**Entry:** Unchanged 0.00635-0.00639 entry/add band plus durable demand, relative-policy, execution and lifecycle gates. Current last is above the band.
**Targets:** Unchanged 0.00670-0.00680 conditional objectives; neither reached.
**Stop:** 0.00618 remains an inactive research invalidation; the delayed last is above it and no complete intraday stop path was reconstructed.
**Invalidation:** Sustained adverse Japan/U.S. policy divergence or failure of durable yen demand despite anticipated BOJ tightening.
**Counterargument:** Imported-energy costs can hurt Japan; persistent U.S. inflation/rates offset BOJ normalization. A nearly anticipated hike may disappoint without further tightening guidance.
**Catalyst:** Japan CPI on September 17 at 19:30 Toronto and the September 18 BOJ policy decision. The decision announcement time is not fixed; no outcome or distinct pre-event entry edge is assumed.
**Roll:** Review December 7-11 before December 14 last trade and December 16 delivery. March extension needs fresh approval; the thin, asynchronous premium is not executable.
**Market evidence:** Japan trade was mixed and both FOMC/BOJ outcomes remain pending. Carry, depth and exact-contract positioning are unavailable.
**Expected return:** Weekly bullish model retained; lower price marginally improves valuation but near-term confirmation remains weak.
**Data limitations:** Current depth, margins, complete costs and all thesis-specific evidence gates are not simultaneously verified.
[Vendor JYZ26 delayed quote](https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/future/jyz26)
[Japan trade release](https://www.customs.go.jp/toukei/shinbun/trade-st_e/2026/2026084e.pdf)
[BOJ schedule](https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm)

### Euro policy-divergence short — Retain conditional short; Wait for a failed 1.1700–1.1750 rally
Conditional euro short remains untriggered.
**Contracts:** −1 6EZ26; conditional 6EH27 roll
**Quote:** 6EZ26 1.1578 USD per EUR at 2026-09-16T12:53:00Z. Delayed intraday exact-month vendor alias
**Change:** −0.0005 / −0.04% from September 15 delayed close 1.1583. The vendor settlement field differs from the accepted delayed-close baseline.
**Entry:** Failed post-FOMC rally to 1.1700–1.1750, reference 1.1725
**Targets:** 1.1200
**Stop:** 1.1950 fundamental/price invalidation
**Invalidation:** ECB tightening and euro-area resilience outperform the U.S. path, or energy normalizes.
**Counterargument:** The ECB hike and upgraded growth can support EUR despite energy stress.
**Catalyst:** FOMC and subsequent ECB/energy evidence.
**Roll:** December last trade December 14; a verified March roll is required before horizon.
**Market evidence:** UK inflation and energy stress support a cautious divergence case, but FOMC guidance, carry, depth and crowding changes remain unverified.
**Expected return:** Weekly bearish model retained; favorable direction consumed a small amount of prospective return without producing the entry pattern.
**Data limitations:** Current depth, margins, complete costs and all thesis-specific evidence gates are not simultaneously verified.
[Vendor ECZ26 delayed quote](https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/future/ecz26)
[FOMC calendar](https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/2026-september.htm)

### Wheat / soybeans — Demote / Wait below the 1.115 trigger; no reverse
Relative-value thesis weakened and remains below trigger.
**Contracts:** Long 2 March 2027 wheat · ZWH27 / short 1 March 2027 soybeans · ZSH27
**Quote:** ZWH27 743.00 and ZSH27 1350.75 US cents per bushel at 2026-09-16T12:44:00Z. Delayed synchronized exact-contract marks
**Change:** −0.002536 / −0.23% from prior carried ratio 1.102666. Synchronized exact-leg ratio; baseline was carried and is not relabelled as an overnight settlement return.
**Entry:** 2W/S 1.115-1.135 only after actual September 11 WASDE and stronger delivered-wheat demand/basis, using synchronized executable legs. Numerical band alone is insufficient.
**Targets:** 1.18-1.20 conditional objectives only after a qualifying future entry.
**Stop:** 1.08 remains a conditional research invalidation, not an active stop.
**Invalidation:** Normalized Black Sea shipping/insurance without import switching, larger exportable wheat supply without demand, or soybean-specific supply damage. Demote after two unsuccessful post-WASDE export cycles.
**Counterargument:** Soy-specific crop damage can hurt the short; abundant wheat and unchanged delivered basis oppose the long. Different marketing years and unequal curve intervals cannot be treated as equal physical exposure or carry.
**Catalyst:** Two actually reviewed post-WASDE export cycles plus evidence of stronger delivered-wheat demand/basis; do not invent dates or pre-credit outcomes.
**Roll:** March contracts cover January 6. Accepted exchange lifecycle dates are February 26, 2027 first notice and March 12 last trade; broker safety cutoff, current margins and delivery controls remain incomplete.
**Market evidence:** Wheat and soybean carry narrowed slightly; cash basis, joint depth and beta-neutral hedge evidence remain unavailable.
**Expected return:** Weekly expected spread return deteriorated; larger world wheat stocks and lower U.S. soybean stocks weaken the relative thesis.
**Data limitations:** Current depth, margins, complete costs and all thesis-specific evidence gates are not simultaneously verified.
[March wheat delayed quote](https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/future/wh27)
[March soybean delayed quote](https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/future/sh27)
[September WASDE](https://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/wasde0926.pdf)

### Nickel supply-normalization short — No action; exact ni2702 evidence unavailable
Evidence failure blocks any nickel judgment.
**Contracts:** −1 ni2702 research unit
**Quote:** ni2702 unavailable on 2026-09-16; no proxy used. Unavailable
**Change:** Unavailable. Baseline and current exact-contract comparison unavailable.
**Entry:** Failed retest of CNY 129,000–131,000/t
**Targets:** CNY 115,000/t
**Stop:** CNY 138,000/t
**Invalidation:** Renewed quota restriction or failure of the Weda Bay restart to produce material shipments.
**Counterargument:** Ore/NPI supply is not the same as deliverable class-I metal and the ramp remains uncertain.
**Catalyst:** Weda Bay ramp/shipments, deliverable stocks and China demand.
**Roll:** February spans January 13; exact SHFE lifecycle/access controls remain required.
**Market evidence:** Curve, carry, basis, positioning, depth, FX and lifecycle inputs remain unavailable.
**Expected return:** Four-month return direction and change are unavailable.
**Data limitations:** Current depth, margins, complete costs and all thesis-specific evidence gates are not simultaneously verified.
[SHFE daily data portal](https://www.shfe.com.cn/eng/reports/MarketDataDaily.html)

### Sugar short — Remain demoted / No action
Demoted sugar short remains non-actionable.
**Contracts:** Short ICE March 2027 Sugar No. 11 · SBH27
**Quote:** SBH27 18.96 US cents per pound at 2026-09-16T12:56:00Z. Delayed intraday exact-contract mark
**Change:** +$0.09¢ / +0.48% from September 15 settlement 18.87¢. Delayed exact-contract comparison; not a trigger.
**Entry:** Future failed retest of 19.20-19.40¢ with improving exportable supply and newly observed long liquidation. September 10 sequence does not qualify.
**Targets:** 18.00¢ then 17.50¢ only after a qualifying future entry.
**Stop:** 20.15¢ conditional reference only. No holding or active stop; September 11 high 19.86 did not reach it.
**Invalidation:** Material upward deficit revision, persistently weaker Brazil sugar share/output, or export restrictions that prevent supply response.
**Counterargument:** High oil and altered fuel taxes can favor ethanol and limit exportable sugar. A larger calendar premium is not proof of future surplus; adverse crop or export-policy changes defeat the short.
**Catalyst:** Next genuinely published UNICA/exportable-supply evidence and prospective price sequence; publication timing remains unknown.
**Roll:** ICE confirms February 26, 2027 last trade and March 1 first notice, after horizon. Broker safety and current margin remain unverified.
**Market evidence:** March/May backwardation widened to 0.63¢ and all-month CFTC length is dated context, not exact-month crowding.
**Expected return:** No decision-useful four-month short-return update; adverse physical risk persists.
**Data limitations:** Current depth, margins, complete costs and all thesis-specific evidence gates are not simultaneously verified.
[SBH27 delayed quote](https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/future/sbh27)
[CFTC legacy futures-only](https://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/deanybtsf.htm)

### SOFR flattener — Suspend / No action until fresh synchronized legs and post-FOMC terms exist
SOFR setup remains suspended.
**Contracts:** Long March 2027 SOFR · SR3H27 / short December 2026 SOFR · SR3Z26
**Quote:** SR3H27 and SR3Z26 unavailable on 2026-09-16 as a synchronized pair. Unavailable
**Change:** Unavailable. No proxy or asynchronous spread substituted.
**Entry:** No approved numerical entry band. Rebuild only after CPI/FOMC with a fully specified flattening thesis.
**Targets:** Former 2-4 bp objective remains cancelled; no approved target.
**Stop:** Former 16 bp reference remains cancelled/inactive; no holding or active stop.
**Invalidation:** Persistent inflation/policy evidence against flattening. An overshoot alone cannot activate this watch.
**Counterargument:** Restrictive policy can sustain the positive slope. Quarterly compounded SOFR and repo/basis dynamics are not one-for-one meeting probabilities.
**Catalyst:** The September 15–16 FOMC meeting, with its decision and press conference on September 16. See this dated edition’s policy findings and risks.
**Roll:** CME indicates December 2026 and March 2027 contracts extend beyond January 6; reference-month mechanics are not ordinary delivery expiry. No four-month roll trigger.
**Market evidence:** Policy expectations, carry, depth and exact-contract positioning cannot be verified before FOMC.
**Expected return:** Four-month direction and priced-in state remain unavailable.
**Data limitations:** Current depth, margins, complete costs and all thesis-specific evidence gates are not simultaneously verified.
[CME SOFR futures](https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/stirs/three-month-sofr.html)
[FOMC calendar](https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/2026-september.htm)

### Natural gas calendar — Wait below the $1.10 premium gate; no implicit roll
Conditional calendar watch remains below trigger and lifecycle-constrained.
**Contracts:** Short January 2027 natural gas · NGF27 / long March 2027 · NGH27
**Quote:** NGF27 3.856 and NGH27 2.891 USD per MMBtu at 2026-09-16T12:47:00Z. Delayed synchronized exact-contract marks
**Change:** −$0.005 from September 15 premium 0.970. Synchronized exact-leg spread; small convergence is favorable but below entry.
**Entry:** Jan−Mar premium at or above $1.10 plus supportive regional deliverability/LNG/weather and complete execution conditions. Current indication fails the price gate.
**Targets:** Old $0.60 reference remains inactive; a validated numerical target/adverse scenario is still missing.
**Stop:** Old $1.35 reference remains inactive and not silently revalidated.
**Invalidation:** Persistent January scarcity from severe winter weather, regional deliverability, freeze-offs or LNG demand defeats the fade.
**Counterargument:** Record LNG demand, freeze-offs and regional deliverability can overwhelm aggregate storage comfort. A record-production forecast is not a guarantee of a mild January or a fair-value estimate for this spread.
**Catalyst:** Monday Hormuz discussions, weekend pipeline/weather updates and next EIA storage September 17; no outcome is pre-credited.
**Roll:** Review/exit or approve a roll by mid-December before holiday liquidity and NGF27 December 29 last trade. NGH27 last trade February 24, 2027.
**Market evidence:** Official inventories remain above the five-year average; regional deliverability, winter weather, LNG demand, depth and margins remain risks.
**Expected return:** Pre-expiry compression improved marginally, but an unchanged pair cannot deliver a full four-month return.
**Data limitations:** Current depth, margins, complete costs and all thesis-specific evidence gates are not simultaneously verified.
[Synchronized natural-gas curve](https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/future/ngf27)
[EIA storage](https://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngs.html)

### OAT / Bund — No action; implementation package remains undefined
OAT/Bund remains blocked.
**Contracts:** December 2026 Euro-OAT · FOATZ26 / December 2026 Euro-Bund · FGBLZ26; tightening watch, hedge ratio unverified
**Quote:** FOATZ26 and FGBLZ26 unavailable on 2026-09-16 as a synchronized package. Unavailable
**Change:** Unavailable. No proxy or stale spread substituted.
**Entry:** No actionable entry until sourced CTDs, conversion factors, repo/basis, futures DV01 and integer hedge counts define the package.
**Targets:** None: a futures-adjusted package and target must be specified first.
**Stop:** None: no defined package or active stop.
**Invalidation:** Failure of a properly specified France/Germany tightening thesis; exact test awaits hedge verification.
**Counterargument:** CTD switches, delivery baskets, special repo and country-specific basis can overwhelm a sovereign spread view. EUR 100,000 face values do not mean equal duration.
**Catalyst:** French fiscal developments and ECB speakers; no raw-price trigger is valid.
**Roll:** December 8 last trade and December 10 delivery remain before horizon; no automatic roll.
**Market evidence:** Carry, basis, depth and lifecycle-safe hedge construction remain unresolved.
**Expected return:** Four-month relative-value direction and priced-in state remain unavailable.
**Data limitations:** Current depth, margins, complete costs and all thesis-specific evidence gates are not simultaneously verified.
[Eurex Euro-OAT futures](https://www.eurex.com/ex-en/markets/int/long-term-interest-rates/fix/government-bonds/Euro-OAT-Futures-137416)

## Retired views
### Crude normalization
Remain retired: disruption defeats the former normalization thesis, but closed markets and unquantified losses do not justify automatic reversal.
September 9 delayed CLV26 $96.75 at 20:15 EDT / CLZ26 $89.40 at 20:23 EDT = $7.35/bbl indicative, +$0.91 versus prior $6.44 and $1.10 above old $6.25 invalidation. Vendor settlements 96.05/89.32 imply $6.73. No position, stop execution or profit/loss. STEO puts most normalization in Q2 2027, outside January 6. Rule-derived last trades September 22/November 20; no inherited roll.
### Dow / Nasdaq rotation
Remain retired: no newly established durable rotation or economically hedged reinstatement edge.
Exact delayed YMU26 52,537 at 20:25:24.710 EDT / NQU26 29,458.25 at 20:25:56.069 EDT; indicative raw ratio 1.783439274, −0.2573% vs 1.788040 prior. Legs are 31.359 seconds apart. Not beta/notional neutral or package P&L. September 18 last-trade dates; no automatic roll or reverse.
### Cocoa long
Remain retired: a modest rebound and provisional logistics headline do not re-establish a physical/catalyst edge.
CCZ26 September 9 date-only vendor settlement $5,951/t vs $5,913 prior: +$38, +0.6427%. Separate delayed last $5,937 at 13:29 EDT. Vendor volume/OI 14,298/75,444, not verified exchange-final flow; Dec–Mar delayed curve +$116/t. Traceability difficulties are search-summary-only context, not verified scarcity or demand recovery. December physical delivery lies within horizon; exact notice/margins unavailable. No reinstatement or reverse.
### CAD / EUR
Remain retired/unavailable: no new exact 6CZ26/6EZ26 pair, valid hedge or reinstatement edge verified.
September 6 historical reference only: 6CZ26 0.72585 / 6EZ26 1.16545, from the September 6 monthly review. No current quote, September 9 move, new ratio, expected return or reversal is asserted. Missing current data is not evidence of zero change.
### Platinum / gold
Exit thesis / retire the unentered watch: WPIC Q2 changes 2026 from a 297 koz deficit to a 265 koz surplus, so the required supportive physical-report first gate fails.
September 9 delayed PLF27 $1,924.70 at 20:22 EDT / GCG27 $4,475.90 at 20:12 EDT = 0.430014075, +2.8386% vs prior 0.418144796; ten-minute skew, indicative. Separate vendor settlements $1,940.70/$4,496.50 = 0.431602358. Prior priced-in score 4/5; final analytical score 2.5/5 before retirement, not conviction or a buy signal. The higher ratio further consumes old remaining value. The watch was retired on September 9 after the failed WPIC condition; no defended retest, automatic reverse, fill or P&L. Thin stocks and an H2 deficit remain context only. Old .410–.414 retest band, .390 invalidation and .445–.460 targets are archival. January physical delivery requires verified December pre-notice safety if ever reconsidered.
### ULSD / RBOB
Remain retired: disruption supports tightness, but the former spread exceeded its old target without entry; no new framework or retroactive gain.
September 9 HOF27 $4.2680 / RBF27 $2.7905 per gallon, both vendor delayed labels 20:26 EDT = $1.4775 indicative, +$0.1162 vs prior $1.3613. Same minute is not synchronized ticks. Separate vendor settlements 4.2984/2.7975 = $1.5009. Final priced-in score 4/5 remains context, not conviction. Original $1.12–$1.18 entry, $1.45 target, $1.03 stop are archival; no target-profit, fill, P&L or automatic reverse. STEO supports distillate tightness but extreme energy/geopolitical repricing overtook the plan. The unentered watch was retired before the September 10 petroleum release; next petroleum data informs market context only. January last trade December 31 is rule-derived and precedes the horizon end.
### October/December VIX calendar
Retired in the September 13 research review: the entry was missed, a complete target remained absent, and October expires before the four-month horizon.
September 11 official settlements 18.3595/19.2846 imply −0.9251. No Sunday executable curve, paper fill, P&L or reverse thesis is claimed.

## Catalyst calendar
- **Sep 16 10:30 Toronto: EIA petroleum status report.** Inside three hours at cutoff; wait for release. [Source](https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/supply/weekly/schedule.php)
- **Sep 16 14:00 / 14:30 Toronto: FOMC decision and press conference.** No outcome assumed. [Source](https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/2026-september.htm)
- **Sep 17 05:00 / 07:00 Toronto: Euro-area CPI and BOE decision.** Verify releases before interpretation. [Source](https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/products-euro-indicators)
- **Sep 17 08:30 Toronto: USDA export sales.** Demand confirmation for wheat versus soybeans. [Source](https://www.fas.usda.gov/programs/export-sales-reporting-program)
- **Sep 17 10:30 Toronto: EIA natural-gas storage.** No outcome assumed. [Source](https://ir.eia.gov/ngs/schedule.html)
- **Sep 17 19:30 Toronto: Japan CPI.** Pre-BOJ inflation input. [Source](https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1582.html)
- **Sep 18 Announcement time not fixed: BOJ policy decision.** No outcome assumed. [Source](https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm)
- **Sep 18 15:30 Toronto: CFTC commitments report.** Dated all-month positioning; not exact-contract ownership. [Source](https://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ReleaseSchedule/index.htm)

## Portfolio results
Simulated NAV $1,000,000 as of Sep 16, 2026, 9:05 a.m. Toronto; net return 0.00%, after modeled costs. 0 open positions and 0 fully closed positions.