# No action; physical oil shock intensified

Research cutoff: Sep 15, 2026, 8:04 p.m. Toronto. Status: partial.

Yanbu loadings and some Saudi cargoes were disrupted, but February WTI is above entry and restart timing is disputed. Gold remains in-zone without defended support. Every setup stays conditional and the simulated book remains cash.

## Market outlook
Four-month dominant-outcome scenario tree retained from the prior complete review.
Subjective analytical weights, not market-implied or measured probabilities; terminal prices are analyst scenario inputs. This evening monitor did not refresh or redatе these probabilities.

## What changed
- **Oil physical disruption intensified:** Yanbu loadings and some Saudi cargoes were suspended/cancelled, while Libyan fields halted.
- **Crude became more priced:** CLG27 rose to 87.33, above the 82–84 entry band.
- **Coffee and sugar moved before entry:** Both settled lower, consuming conditional short return without satisfying physical gates.
- **Gold and FX await policy catalysts:** Settlement/close changes were small; FOMC and BOJ remain dominant.

## Trade theses

### Coffee replenishment short — Retain thesis; Wait and do not chase below the failed-retest band
Best new research watch, but no paper trade qualifies.
**Contracts:** −1 KCH27
**Quote:** KCH27 275.05 US cents per pound on 2026-09-15 vendor settlement. Vendor settlement; delayed close 275.25; retrieved at cutoff
**Change:** −3.80¢ / −1.36% from September 15 morning delayed 278.85¢. Comparison is against the September 15 morning accepted monitor; observation types are labelled and are not P&L or executable package prices.
**Entry:** Failed retest of 280–288¢, reference 285¢, after certified stocks rise
**Targets:** 255¢ then 240¢
**Stop:** 305¢ research invalidation; gaps can exceed it
**Invalidation:** Certification failures, net withdrawals, logistics disruption or adverse Brazil flowering/crop evidence.
**Counterargument:** Certified stocks remain exceptionally low and a weather squeeze can gap through the stop.
**Catalyst:** Daily certification/grading outcomes, Brazil exports and flowering weather.
**Roll:** FND February 18 and last trade March 18, 2027; no roll before January 13.
**Market evidence:** Secex export recovery strengthens availability evidence, not ICE certification; weather, stocks and backwardation remain risks.
**Expected return:** Weekly model retained; price moved in the thesis direction before entry and consumed some prospective return.
**Data limitations:** Current depth, margins, complete costs and all thesis-specific evidence gates are not simultaneously verified.
[Vendor KCH27 quote](https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/futures/KCH27)
[Cecafé August exports](https://www.cecafe.com.br/publicacoes/noticias/cecafe-relatorio-exportacao-ago2026-20260910/)

### Deferred WTI scarcity — Retain regime-alert thesis; Wait above the $82–$84 entry band; do not chase
Leading conditional energy watch; no paper trade qualifies.
**Contracts:** +1 CLG27
**Quote:** CLG27 87.33 USD per barrel at 2026-09-15T20:20:00Z. Delayed exact-contract close/last; not official settlement
**Change:** +$1.13 / +1.31% from September 15 morning 86.20. Comparison is against the September 15 morning accepted monitor; observation types are labelled and are not P&L or executable package prices.
**Entry:** $82–84, modeling reference $83
**Targets:** $104/bbl by January 13
**Stop:** $76/bbl research invalidation; gap risk remains
**Invalidation:** Sustained export/transit restoration with inventory rebuilding, or demand contraction outrunning lost supply.
**Counterargument:** High prices can destroy demand and the backward curve may correctly anticipate normalization.
**Catalyst:** Saudi repairs, actual exports, tanker flows and EIA inventories.
**Roll:** Last trade January 20; mandatory horizon exit by January 13, no planned roll.
**Market evidence:** Front scarcity is highly priced; February has a lower embedded disruption premium but no verified executable depth.
**Expected return:** Weekly model retained; physical thesis strengthened but prospective return deteriorated at the higher price.
**Data limitations:** Current depth, margins, complete costs and all thesis-specific evidence gates are not simultaneously verified.
[CLG27 delayed quote](https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/futures/CLG27)
[Saudi pipeline status](https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/saudi-pipeline-outage-threatens-loss-4-global-oil-supply-2026-09-13/)

### Copper tariff-premium fade — Retain short thesis; Wait for failed 6.70–6.80 rally and physical confirmation
Strong arithmetic, contradictory physicals; do not promote above coffee or crude.
**Contracts:** −1 HGH27
**Quote:** HGH27 6.5410 USD per pound on 2026-09-15 vendor settlement. Vendor settlement; reopened last had only nine contracts
**Change:** +$0.0085 / +0.13% from September 15 morning 6.5325. Comparison is against the September 15 morning accepted monitor; observation types are labelled and are not P&L or executable package prices.
**Entry:** Failed retest of $6.70–6.80, reference $6.75
**Targets:** $5.90/lb
**Stop:** $7.10/lb
**Invalidation:** Enacted meaningful tariff or verified mine/refinery loss overwhelming redistribution.
**Counterargument:** Low Asian stocks and price-sensitive buying can absorb liquidation quickly.
**Catalyst:** U.S. tariff decision, China activity, physical premia and positioning.
**Roll:** March contract spans January 13; verify delivery calendar before eligibility.
**Market evidence:** Sunday volume was 58 contracts; no depth or current margin.
**Expected return:** Weekly model retained; no material return revision and no trigger.
**Data limitations:** Current depth, margins, complete costs and all thesis-specific evidence gates are not simultaneously verified.
[CME copper feed](https://www.cmegroup.com/CmeWS/mvc/quotes/v2/438)
[Reuters copper tariff report](https://www.reuters.com/world/us/white-house-copper-tariff-plan-stalls-amid-affordability-concerns-sources-say-2026-09-10/)

### Gold defensive continuation — Retain closest watch; Wait for defended support after FOMC
Defensive challenger, not a current entry.
**Contracts:** +1 GCG27
**Quote:** GCG27 4368.80 USD per troy ounce on 2026-09-15 vendor settlement. Vendor settlement; reopened volume 167 is diagnostic only
**Change:** +$3.20 / +0.073% from September 15 morning 4,365.60. Comparison is against the September 15 morning accepted monitor; observation types are labelled and are not P&L or executable package prices.
**Entry:** Defended $4,300–4,380 zone
**Targets:** $4,800/oz
**Stop:** $4,100/oz
**Invalidation:** Durable ETF outflows with higher real yields/dollar and failed defensive demand.
**Counterargument:** Inflation-driven tightening can hurt gold even during geopolitical stress.
**Catalyst:** FOMC, real yields, dollar and verified ETF flows.
**Roll:** February spans January 13; verify first-notice controls before eligibility.
**Market evidence:** August ETF inflows show strong demand but also an adopted narrative; no current depth or margin.
**Expected return:** Weekly model retained; expected return is essentially unchanged/slightly worse at settlement and support is unconfirmed.
**Data limitations:** Current depth, margins, complete costs and all thesis-specific evidence gates are not simultaneously verified.
[CME gold feed](https://www.cmegroup.com/CmeWS/mvc/quotes/v2/437)
[World Gold Council ETF flows](https://www.gold.org/goldhub/research/gold-etfs-holdings-and-flows/2026/09)

### Japanese yen — Hold research thesis; no add above entry band; Wait through FOMC/BOJ
Retain reduced-prominence yen research only; no paper holding or add.
**Contracts:** Long CME December 2026 yen · 6JZ26
**Quote:** 6JZ26 0.006495 USD per JPY on 2026-09-15 vendor settlement. Vendor settlement normalized by dividing display by 100; reopened last diagnostic
**Change:** −0.000007 / −0.108% from September 15 morning 0.006502. Comparison is against the September 15 morning accepted monitor; observation types are labelled and are not P&L or executable package prices.
**Entry:** Unchanged 0.00635-0.00639 entry/add band plus durable demand, relative-policy, execution and lifecycle gates. Current last is above the band.
**Targets:** Unchanged 0.00670-0.00680 conditional objectives; neither reached.
**Stop:** 0.00618 remains an inactive research invalidation; the delayed last is above it and no complete intraday stop path was reconstructed.
**Invalidation:** Sustained adverse Japan/U.S. policy divergence or failure of durable yen demand despite anticipated BOJ tightening.
**Counterargument:** Imported-energy costs can hurt Japan; persistent U.S. inflation/rates offset BOJ normalization. A nearly anticipated hike may disappoint without further tightening guidance.
**Catalyst:** September 17-18 BOJ meeting, decision and guidance. The decision announcement time is not fixed; no distinct pre-event entry edge is established.
**Roll:** Review December 7-11 before December 14 last trade and December 16 delivery. March extension needs fresh approval; the thin, asynchronous premium is not executable.
**Market evidence:** Vendor displayed 0.6541; normalized settlement 0.006541 is a diagnostic scaling, not execution eligible.
**Expected return:** Weekly model retained; lower price modestly improves entry valuation but weakens near-term confirmation.
**Data limitations:** Current depth, margins, complete costs and all thesis-specific evidence gates are not simultaneously verified.
[cme-yen](https://www.cmegroup.com/CmeWS/mvc/quotes/v2/69)
[boj-schedule](https://www.boj.or.jp/en/about/calendar/index.htm)
[reuters-yen-flow](https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/rising-japanese-yields-may-keep-more-domestic-money-home-fitch-says-2026-09-09/)
[reuters-fed-poll](https://www.reuters.com/business/fed-hold-rates-steady-rest-2026-rising-number-analysts-see-least-one-hike-2026-09-09/)
[cftc-tff](https://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/financial_lf.htm)
[NBS August CPI](https://www.stats.gov.cn/sj/zxfb/202609/t20260909_1965263.html)
[NBS PPI release index](https://www.stats.gov.cn/sj/zxfb/)

### Euro policy-divergence short — Retain short thesis; Wait for failed 1.1700–1.1750 rally; do not chase
Useful challenger but not promoted.
**Contracts:** −1 6EZ26; conditional 6EH27 roll
**Quote:** 6EZ26 1.1583 USD per EUR at 2026-09-15T19:30:00Z. Delayed close/last; displayed settlement remained stale
**Change:** −0.0006 / −0.052% from September 15 morning 1.1589. Comparison is against the September 15 morning accepted monitor; observation types are labelled and are not P&L or executable package prices.
**Entry:** Failed post-FOMC rally to 1.1700–1.1750, reference 1.1725
**Targets:** 1.1200
**Stop:** 1.1950 fundamental/price invalidation
**Invalidation:** ECB tightening and euro-area resilience outperform the U.S. path, or energy normalizes.
**Counterargument:** The ECB hike and upgraded growth can support EUR despite energy stress.
**Catalyst:** FOMC and subsequent ECB/energy evidence.
**Roll:** December last trade December 14; a verified March roll is required before horizon.
**Market evidence:** EUR shorts increased and observed March volume was thin; no executable roll or margin.
**Expected return:** Weekly model retained; favorable move before entry consumed prospective short return.
**Data limitations:** Current depth, margins, complete costs and all thesis-specific evidence gates are not simultaneously verified.
[CME euro feed](https://www.cmegroup.com/CmeWS/mvc/quotes/v2/58)
[ECB decision](https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260910~314e508016.en.html)

### Wheat / soybeans — Demote; Wait below entry floor and without fresh synchronized legs
Retain only through the existing two-cycle evidence review.
**Contracts:** Long 2 March 2027 wheat · ZWH27 / short 1 March 2027 soybeans · ZSH27
**Quote:** 2 ZWH27 / 1 ZSH27 ratio 1.102666 carried from September 15 morning. Carried; unavailable for current action
**Change:** Unavailable, not zero. Comparison is against the September 15 morning accepted monitor; observation types are labelled and are not P&L or executable package prices.
**Entry:** 2W/S 1.115-1.135 only after actual September 11 WASDE and stronger delivered-wheat demand/basis, using synchronized executable legs. Numerical band alone is insufficient.
**Targets:** 1.18-1.20 conditional objectives only after a qualifying future entry.
**Stop:** 1.08 remains a conditional research invalidation, not an active stop.
**Invalidation:** Normalized Black Sea shipping/insurance without import switching, larger exportable wheat supply without demand, or soybean-specific supply damage. Demote after two unsuccessful post-WASDE export cycles.
**Counterargument:** Soy-specific crop damage can hurt the short; abundant wheat and unchanged delivered basis oppose the long. Different marketing years and unequal curve intervals cannot be treated as equal physical exposure or carry.
**Catalyst:** Two actually reviewed post-WASDE export cycles plus evidence of stronger delivered-wheat demand/basis; do not invent dates or pre-credit outcomes.
**Roll:** March contracts cover January 6. Accepted exchange lifecycle dates are February 26, 2027 first notice and March 12 last trade; broker safety cutoff, current margins and delivery controls remain incomplete.
**Market evidence:** Aggregate September 8 positioning remains far longer soy than wheat but predates WASDE and is not March-specific. The 2:1 package is not dollar- or risk-neutral; no new curve, basis, depth or correlation.
**Expected return:** Weekly model retained; expected return remains deteriorated and no evening refresh is possible.
**Data limitations:** Current depth, margins, complete costs and all thesis-specific evidence gates are not simultaneously verified.
[Exact March wheat](https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/futures/WH27)
[Exact March soy](https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/futures/SH27)
[USDA Illinois bids](https://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/ams_3192.pdf)
[USDA inspections](https://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/wa_gr101.txt)
[USDA WASDE](https://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde)
[CFTC legacy CBOT](https://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/deacbtlf.htm)

### Nickel supply-normalization short — Wait / No action; fresh exact-contract evidence unavailable
Research hypothesis only, not an executable board leader.
**Contracts:** −1 ni2702 research unit
**Quote:** ni2702 CNY 127,330/t. Carried/unavailable; no proxy substituted
**Change:** Unavailable, not zero. No fresh synchronized exact-contract observation was verified; accepted dated evidence is carried and nonactionable.
**Entry:** Failed retest of CNY 129,000–131,000/t
**Targets:** CNY 115,000/t
**Stop:** CNY 138,000/t
**Invalidation:** Renewed quota restriction or failure of the Weda Bay restart to produce material shipments.
**Counterargument:** Ore/NPI supply is not the same as deliverable class-I metal and the ramp remains uncertain.
**Catalyst:** Weda Bay ramp/shipments, deliverable stocks and China demand.
**Roll:** February spans January 13; exact SHFE lifecycle/access controls remain required.
**Market evidence:** Official settlement volume 1,469 and OI 4,415; these do not prove overseas access or depth.
**Expected return:** No numerical return or priced-in refresh from carried evidence.
**Data limitations:** Current depth, margins, complete costs and all thesis-specific evidence gates are not simultaneously verified.
[SHFE daily data](https://www.shfe.com.cn/data/tradedata/future/dailydata/kx20260911.dat)
[Eramet Weda Bay restart](https://www.eramet.com/en/news/pt-weda-bay-nickel-restarts-its-mining-operations/)

### Sugar short — Remain demoted; Wait for future failed retest plus physical and positioning gates
Suspend the unentered sugar short; no reverse.
**Contracts:** Short ICE March 2027 Sugar No. 11 · SBH27
**Quote:** SBH27 18.87 US cents per pound on 2026-09-15 vendor settlement. Vendor settlement; delayed close 18.90
**Change:** −0.11¢ / −0.58% from September 15 morning 18.98¢. Comparison is against the September 15 morning accepted monitor; observation types are labelled and are not P&L or executable package prices.
**Entry:** Future failed retest of 19.20-19.40¢ with improving exportable supply and newly observed long liquidation. September 10 sequence does not qualify.
**Targets:** 18.00¢ then 17.50¢ only after a qualifying future entry.
**Stop:** 20.15¢ conditional reference only. No holding or active stop; September 11 high 19.86 did not reach it.
**Invalidation:** Material upward deficit revision, persistently weaker Brazil sugar share/output, or export restrictions that prevent supply response.
**Counterargument:** High oil and altered fuel taxes can favor ethanol and limit exportable sugar. A larger calendar premium is not proof of future surplus; adverse crop or export-policy changes defeat the short.
**Catalyst:** Next genuinely published UNICA/exportable-supply evidence and prospective price sequence; publication timing remains unknown.
**Roll:** ICE confirms February 26, 2027 last trade and March 1 first notice, after horizon. Broker safety and current margin remain unverified.
**Market evidence:** CFTC length increased and India import demand offsets the unverified supply-normalization premise.
**Expected return:** No current numerical model; lower price consumed residual short return without restoring the thesis.
**Data limitations:** Current depth, margins, complete costs and all thesis-specific evidence gates are not simultaneously verified.
[sugarQuote](https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/futures/SBH27/contracts)
[cftcSugar](https://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/ag_sf.htm)
[unica](https://unica.com.br/noticias/)
[iso](https://www.isosugar.org/publications/3/quarterly-market-outlook)
[brazilFuel](https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/brazil-government-releases-13-billion-fuel-subsidies-2026-09-09/)
[sugarSpecs](https://www.ice.com/products/23/Sugar-No-11-Futures)
[sugarLifecycle](https://www.ice.com/products/23/Sugar-No-11-Futures/expiry)

### SOFR flattener — No action; former levels remain cancelled pending a post-FOMC rebuild
The SOFR watch remains demoted because prospective trade terms and evidence remain incomplete.
**Contracts:** Long March 2027 SOFR · SR3H27 / short December 2026 SOFR · SR3Z26
**Quote:** SR3H27 95.560 / SR3Z26 95.780. Carried/unavailable; no proxy substituted
**Change:** Unavailable, not zero. No fresh synchronized exact-contract observation was verified; accepted dated evidence is carried and nonactionable.
**Entry:** No approved numerical entry band. Rebuild only after CPI/FOMC with a fully specified flattening thesis.
**Targets:** Former 2-4 bp objective remains cancelled; no approved target.
**Stop:** Former 16 bp reference remains cancelled/inactive; no holding or active stop.
**Invalidation:** Persistent inflation/policy evidence against flattening. An overshoot alone cannot activate this watch.
**Counterargument:** Restrictive policy can sustain the positive slope. Quarterly compounded SOFR and repo/basis dynamics are not one-for-one meeting probabilities.
**Catalyst:** The September 15–16 FOMC meeting, with its decision and press conference on September 16. See this dated edition’s policy findings and risks.
**Roll:** CME indicates December 2026 and March 2027 contracts extend beyond January 6; reference-month mechanics are not ordinary delivery expiry. No four-month roll trigger.
**Market evidence:** Aggregate SOFR shorts do not establish this calendar spread positioning.
**Expected return:** No numerical return or priced-in refresh from carried evidence.
**Data limitations:** Current depth, margins, complete costs and all thesis-specific evidence gates are not simultaneously verified.
[cme-sofr](https://www.cmegroup.com/CmeWS/mvc/quotes/v2/8462)
[ecec](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ecec.nr0.htm)
[bls-calendar](https://www.bls.gov/schedule/2026/09_sched.htm)
[reuters-fed-poll](https://www.reuters.com/business/fed-hold-rates-steady-rest-2026-rising-number-analysts-see-least-one-hike-2026-09-09/)
[sofr-rulebook](https://www.cmegroup.com/rulebook/CME/IV/400/460.pdf)
[cftc-tff](https://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/financial_lf.htm)
[NBS August CPI](https://www.stats.gov.cn/sj/zxfb/202609/t20260909_1965263.html)
[NBS PPI release index](https://www.stats.gov.cn/sj/zxfb/)

### Natural gas calendar — Wait; premium remains below $1.10 gate
Demote gas; do not roll or fill.
**Contracts:** Short January 2027 natural gas · NGF27 / long March 2027 · NGH27
**Quote:** On 2026-09-15, NGF27 3.851 − NGH27 2.881 = 0.970 USD per MMBtu. Synchronized September 15 vendor settlements; reopened legs are asynchronous
**Change:** Unchanged from September 15 morning indicative $0.970. Comparison is against the September 15 morning accepted monitor; observation types are labelled and are not P&L or executable package prices.
**Entry:** Jan−Mar premium at or above $1.10 plus supportive regional deliverability/LNG/weather and complete execution conditions. Current indication fails the price gate.
**Targets:** Old $0.60 reference remains inactive; a validated numerical target/adverse scenario is still missing.
**Stop:** Old $1.35 reference remains inactive and not silently revalidated.
**Invalidation:** Persistent January scarcity from severe winter weather, regional deliverability, freeze-offs or LNG demand defeats the fade.
**Counterargument:** Record LNG demand, freeze-offs and regional deliverability can overwhelm aggregate storage comfort. A record-production forecast is not a guarantee of a mild January or a fair-value estimate for this spread.
**Catalyst:** Monday Hormuz discussions, weekend pipeline/weather updates and next EIA storage September 17; no outcome is pre-credited.
**Roll:** Review/exit or approve a roll by mid-December before holiday liquidity and NGF27 December 29 last trade. NGH27 last trade February 24, 2027.
**Market evidence:** National storage surplus coexists with depleted South Central salt and LNG demand risk.
**Expected return:** Conditional return remains deteriorated because convergence occurred before entry.
**Data limitations:** Current depth, margins, complete costs and all thesis-specific evidence gates are not simultaneously verified.
[gasQuote](https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/futures/NGF27/contracts)
[steoGas](https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/natgas.php)
[weeklyGas](https://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngs.html)
[gasSchedule](https://ir.eia.gov/ngs/schedule.html)
[cftcGas](https://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/nat_gas_sf.htm)
[gasSpecs](https://www.cmegroup.com/rulebook/NYMEX/2/220.pdf)

### OAT / Bund — No action; current DV01-safe package remains undefined
Demote OAT/Bund to context-only research.
**Contracts:** December 2026 Euro-OAT · FOATZ26 / December 2026 Euro-Bund · FGBLZ26; tightening watch, hedge ratio unverified
**Quote:** FOATZ26 112.30 / FGBLZ26 120.48. Carried/unavailable; no proxy substituted
**Change:** Unavailable, not zero. No fresh synchronized exact-contract observation was verified; accepted dated evidence is carried and nonactionable.
**Entry:** No actionable entry until sourced CTDs, conversion factors, repo/basis, futures DV01 and integer hedge counts define the package.
**Targets:** None: a futures-adjusted package and target must be specified first.
**Stop:** None: no defined package or active stop.
**Invalidation:** Failure of a properly specified France/Germany tightening thesis; exact test awaits hedge verification.
**Counterargument:** CTD switches, delivery baskets, special repo and country-specific basis can overwhelm a sovereign spread view. EUR 100,000 face values do not mean equal duration.
**Catalyst:** French fiscal developments and ECB speakers; no raw-price trigger is valid.
**Roll:** December 8 last trade and December 10 delivery remain before horizon; no automatic roll.
**Market evidence:** No new spread trend, carry, basis, positioning, package liquidity or measured correlation. Macro context does not define a trade.
**Expected return:** No numerical return or priced-in refresh from carried evidence.
**Data limitations:** Current depth, margins, complete costs and all thesis-specific evidence gates are not simultaneously verified.
[eurex-oat](https://www.eurex.com/api/v1/overallstatistics/34684?busdate=20260909&filtertype=overview)
[eurex-bund](https://www.eurex.com/api/v1/overallstatistics/34656?busdate=20260909&filtertype=overview)
[eurex-deliverables](https://www.eurex.com/ex-en/data/clearing-files/notified-deliverable-bonds-conversion-factors)
[eurex-ctd](https://www.eurex.com/ex-en/markets/int/financing-of-futures-ctds)
[ecb-webcast](https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/press_conference/html/index.en.html)
[ecb-weekly](https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/weekly/html/index.en.html)

## Retired views
### Crude normalization
Remain retired: disruption defeats the former normalization thesis, but closed markets and unquantified losses do not justify automatic reversal.
September 9 delayed CLV26 $96.75 at 20:15 EDT / CLZ26 $89.40 at 20:23 EDT = $7.35/bbl indicative, +$0.91 versus prior $6.44 and $1.10 above old $6.25 invalidation. Vendor settlements 96.05/89.32 imply $6.73. No position, stop execution or profit/loss. STEO puts most normalization in Q2 2027, outside January 6. Rule-derived last trades September 22/November 20; no inherited roll.
### Dow / Nasdaq rotation
Remain retired: no newly established durable rotation or economically hedged reinstatement edge.
Exact delayed YMU26 52,537 at 20:25:24.710 EDT / NQU26 29,458.25 at 20:25:56.069 EDT; indicative raw ratio 1.783439274, −0.2573% vs 1.788040 prior. Legs are 31.359 seconds apart. Not beta/notional neutral or package P&L. September 18 last-trade dates; no automatic roll or reverse.
### Cocoa long
Remain retired: a modest rebound and provisional logistics headline do not re-establish a physical/catalyst edge.
CCZ26 September 9 date-only vendor settlement $5,951/t vs $5,913 prior: +$38, +0.6427%. Separate delayed last $5,937 at 13:29 EDT. Vendor volume/OI 14,298/75,444, not verified exchange-final flow; Dec–Mar delayed curve +$116/t. Traceability difficulties are search-summary-only context, not verified scarcity or demand recovery. December physical delivery lies within horizon; exact notice/margins unavailable. No reinstatement or reverse.
### CAD / EUR
Remain retired/unavailable: no new exact 6CZ26/6EZ26 pair, valid hedge or reinstatement edge verified.
September 6 historical reference only: 6CZ26 0.72585 / 6EZ26 1.16545, from the September 6 monthly review. No current quote, September 9 move, new ratio, expected return or reversal is asserted. Missing current data is not evidence of zero change.
### Platinum / gold
Exit thesis / retire the unentered watch: WPIC Q2 changes 2026 from a 297 koz deficit to a 265 koz surplus, so the required supportive physical-report first gate fails.
September 9 delayed PLF27 $1,924.70 at 20:22 EDT / GCG27 $4,475.90 at 20:12 EDT = 0.430014075, +2.8386% vs prior 0.418144796; ten-minute skew, indicative. Separate vendor settlements $1,940.70/$4,496.50 = 0.431602358. Prior priced-in score 4/5; final analytical score 2.5/5 before retirement, not conviction or a buy signal. The higher ratio further consumes old remaining value. The watch was retired on September 9 after the failed WPIC condition; no defended retest, automatic reverse, fill or P&L. Thin stocks and an H2 deficit remain context only. Old .410–.414 retest band, .390 invalidation and .445–.460 targets are archival. January physical delivery requires verified December pre-notice safety if ever reconsidered.
### ULSD / RBOB
Remain retired: disruption supports tightness, but the former spread exceeded its old target without entry; no new framework or retroactive gain.
September 9 HOF27 $4.2680 / RBF27 $2.7905 per gallon, both vendor delayed labels 20:26 EDT = $1.4775 indicative, +$0.1162 vs prior $1.3613. Same minute is not synchronized ticks. Separate vendor settlements 4.2984/2.7975 = $1.5009. Final priced-in score 4/5 remains context, not conviction. Original $1.12–$1.18 entry, $1.45 target, $1.03 stop are archival; no target-profit, fill, P&L or automatic reverse. STEO supports distillate tightness but extreme energy/geopolitical repricing overtook the plan. The unentered watch was retired before the September 10 petroleum release; next petroleum data informs market context only. January last trade December 31 is rule-derived and precedes the horizon end.
### October/December VIX calendar
Retired in the September 13 research review: the entry was missed, a complete target remained absent, and October expires before the four-month horizon.
September 11 official settlements 18.3595/19.2846 imply −0.9251. No Sunday executable curve, paper fill, P&L or reverse thesis is claimed.

## Catalyst calendar
- **Sep 14 21:30 Toronto: China residential prices.** Inside three hours; wait for release. [Source](https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html)
- **Sep 14 22:00 Toronto: China activity data.** Industrial production, retail sales, investment, property and energy data. [Source](https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html)
- **Sep 16 08:30 Toronto: U.S. retail sales and import/export prices.** No outcome assumed. [Source](https://www.bls.gov/schedule/2026/09_sched_list.htm)
- **Sep 16 10:30 Toronto: EIA petroleum status report.** Physical inventory and product balances. [Source](https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/supply/weekly/schedule.php)
- **Sep 16 14:00 Toronto: FOMC decision and projections.** Press conference follows at 14:30 Toronto. [Source](https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/2026-september.htm)
- **Sep 17 08:30 Toronto: USDA export sales.** Verify exact release before interpreting. [Source](https://www.fas.usda.gov/programs/export-sales-reporting-program)
- **Sep 17 10:30 Toronto: EIA natural gas storage.** No outcome assumed. [Source](https://www.eia.gov/naturalgas/storage/)
- **Sep 17 meeting schedule: BOJ meeting begins.** Decision announcement time is not fixed; the outcome is not yet known. [Source](https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm)

## Portfolio results
Simulated NAV $1,000,000 as of Sep 15, 2026, 8:04 p.m. Toronto; net return 0.00%, after modeled costs. 0 open positions and 0 fully closed positions.